Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
"Intelligent Insight"
An interesting perspective via a press release from online broker FXB Trading. Whilst they are pushing their “hedge strategy” for Australian property, drawing parallels with the US crash of 2007; the key points they make are important and largely align with our view of the local property market. If they are right, recent price falls … Continue reading “Safe as Houses? Not if You Live in Australia”
First Time Buyers are keeping the property ship afloat for now, but what are the consequences? Welcome to the Property Imperative weekly to 9th December 2017. Watch the video, or read the transcript. In our weekly digest of property and finance news, we start this week with the latest housing lending finance from the ABS. … Continue reading “First Time Buyers Keep The Property Market Afloat – The Property Imperative Weekly – 9th Dec 2017”
The ABS released the National Accounts to September 2017 today. The expectation was a 0.7% lift in GDP, but it came in 0.6%. This gives an annual read of 2.3%, well short of the hoped for 3%+. Seasonally adjusted, growth was 2.8%. Business investment apart, this is a weak and concerning result. The terms of … Continue reading “GDP Sags Below Expectation In September 2017”
A really mixed bag of news this week, with stronger business and employment data, lower mortgage defaults and yet weak wage growth, and more evidence of the pressure on households. We pick over the coals and try to make sense of what’s going on. Welcome to the Property Imperative Weekly to 18 November 2017. Watch … Continue reading “Walking The Tightrope – The Property Imperative Weekly 18 Nov 2017”
The ABS has released their analysis of individual state accounts to Jun 2017. This includes an estimate of average gross household disposable income per capita. The variations across states are significant and interesting. Of note is the astronomical value, and trajectory of individuals in the ACT, relative to everywhere else. In addition, we see a … Continue reading “The ACT Is Another Country”
From The Conversation. Australian wages have again failed to meet expectations – rising by just 2% on an annual basis. This is bad not just for workers, but for the economy in general. Wages need to rise, especially for those on low to middle incomes. Research shows that even a small increase in interest rates … Continue reading “Increasing wages would make the Australian economy safer”
The latest Bank Underground blog post “New Machines for The Old Lady”, explores the power of machine learning and advanced analytics. Rapid advances in analytical modelling and information processing capabilities, particularly in machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI), combined with ever more granular data are currently transforming many aspects of everyday life and work. … Continue reading “Machine Learning, Analytics And Central Banking”
From the UK Office For National Statistics. Concerns about “inflation over target” and “limited” slack in the economy have prompted the Bank of England to raise interest rates for the first time in more than a decade. On 2 November 2017, the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 7-2 in favour of raising the interest … Continue reading “Bank of England Lifts Cash Rate”
Another big week of finance and property news, so we pick over the bones and try to make sense of what’s going on. And we ask were the Regulators asleep at the wheel? Welcome to the Property Imperative weekly to 28th October 2017. Watch the video or read the transcript. We start this week’s review … Continue reading “Asleep At The Wheel? – The Property Imperative Weekly 28 Oct 2017”
The ABS released their National Accounts for 2016-17. Overall, we see why the RBA cut rates to let property prices run hot. Without property, the economy would have been shot. But of course, getting back on a more even keel is now much more difficult and much of household wealth is attached to inflated property … Continue reading “National Accounts 2016-17 Highlights Reliance On Property”