Category: Economic Data

Another Fine Mess For Australian Housing!

Wherever you look, the news is not good for those wishing to see housing affordability relief.

First demand for rentals continues to be powered by the overseas influx. New data from the Department of Home Affairs shows that at the end of February, the number of international students in Australia hit a record high of 713,144, whereas the number of temporary migrants in Australia hit a record high of 2.8 million (nearly 2.4 million excluding visitors).

Or put it another way, the number of student visa holders in Australia is running around 80,000 above the pre-pandemic peak, while the number of temporary visa holders excluding visitors is around 400,000 above the pre-pandemic peak.

Then we can turn to the question of new housing supply. I have covered before the fact that the country is littered with half-completed construction projects, many of which are competing for labour and resources with the large number of government and commercial projects also currently running. This crowded out home builders as the major projects sucked in labour and drove up its cost.

But we also continue to see more building firms going under. In the light of this, perhaps we should not be surprised that the total number of dwellings approved fell 1.9 per cent in February (seasonally adjusted), after a 2.5 per cent fall in January, according to data released on Thursday by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

I’m Comyn For Your Cash! With Robbie Barwick…

An important discussion about the future of cash across Australia with Robbie Barwick from The Australian Citizens Party.

The CEO of CBA Matt Comyn floated the idea of limiting cash transactions to $500, so we pull this apart in the context of the Use Cash campaign which ran successfully on the 2nd April.

See my earlier show for detail of that campaign, and the Senate interrogation of the RBA which we also discuss. The Fight For Cash Just Got Terminally Serious! https://youtu.be/LiNSH7I_8xs

https://citizensparty.org.au/

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So Who Is Really Feeling The Pinch?

In today’s show we look at the latest from our surveys – how many households are really under financial pressure – because there are big differences between the “official” figures and those shown in other surveys, and data points, including the rise in calls to financial help lines and hardship supports.

This is the first in a series of shows, culminating with a live show on Tuesday 9th April 2024.

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DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Investing Now: With Damien Klassen

This is an edited version of a live discussion with Head of Investments at Walk The World Funds and Nucleus Wealth, Damien Klassen for our regular monthly look at what is going on across the markets, as many are reaching new highs, even as company returns are in question, and inflation is looking more sticky. Is a stock correction likely, and what does all this means for bonds and other asset classes?

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Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!

More from our Property Insider, Edwin Almeida, as we look at the latest property news, and also discuss dummy bidding, and how changes in China are impacting property here.

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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

The FED Speaks After The Bell, As Inflation Holds Higher!

This is our latest weekly market update.

In a foreshortened trading week, the Dow and S&P 500 closed at new record highs on Thursday, notching its best first-quarter performance since 2009 supported by the AI boom and as the rally broadened out beyond tech amid optimism on rate cuts coming soon and data signaling a soft landing for the US economy remains within in reach. MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe fell very slightly. The index was up over 7% for the first quarter.

The S&P 500 benchmark index closed up 0.1 per cent to 5254.35; having touched an intraday high of 5264.85 midafternoon. The Dow advanced 0.1 per cent, losing early momentum for a run at 40,000. The Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.12 per cent.

But additional data including the core PCE inflation metric, the Federal Reserve’s preferred price measure came out on Holiday Friday. The so-called core personal consumption expenditures price index, which strips out the volatile food and energy components, increased 0.3% from the prior month, data out Friday showed. That followed a 0.5% reading in January, marking the biggest back-to-back gain in a year. Fourth-quarter core PCE inflation was revised slightly lower. The measure is up 2.8% from a year earlier, still above the Fed’s 2% target.

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Pressure: Retail Spending Stagnates, Despite “Growth” In Wealth!

The ABS released more data on Thursday from which we can deduce that despite some headline growth in spending thanks to the Taylor Swift events, underlying growth in retail turnover was up only 0.1 per cent in trend terms so after a period of higher volatility from November through to January, underlying spending has stagnated.

This is despite a growth in paper wealth – up which was 7.8 per cent over the past year, thanks to a large boost from rising house prices and domestic and overseas share markets. But we also saw a rise in household borrowing driven by continuing demand for housing amid strong population growth and a seasonal boost from spring housing market sales also drove household borrowing in the December quarter.

Under the hood, we see continued pressure on many households whose wages are not keeping up with living costs – inflation as I discussed yesterday remains too high, while the asset distribution across households is further distorting between the haves and have nots. Many consumers are clearly struggling under the weight of soft income growth, mortgage repayments, rents, income taxes, and overall cost-of-living pressures.

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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

No Hope And Massive Debt Is Not A Good Recipe For The Future!

BlackRock co-founder and CEO Larry Fink, in his annual letter to shareholders has rattled some important cages, even if you can see self-interest shining through.

He highlights a couple of not necessarily unrelated issues. First, he is frightened by the US public debt situation, and second he warns of a looming “retirement crisis” facing the US and called on baby boomers to help younger generations save enough for their own futures.

Young people “have lost trust in older generations,” Fink wrote. “The burden is on us to get it back. And maybe investing for their long-term goals, including retirement, isn’t such a bad place to begin.”

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CPI Data Says Higher For Longer, Again!

We got the latest monthly data on inflation on Wednesday, and it came in a bit below market expectations, standing at 3.4% unchanged in February and has been 3.4 per cent for three consecutive months according to the ABS. Monthly data does not cover all the categories, so results are always a bit uncertain.

But just to be clear, prices are still rising faster than the RBA’s target, and while the data is volatile, there is clearly more to do to get to band. Also, I believe real inflation as experienced by many households are significantly higher than the official numbers. When excluding volatile items, the annual rise eased to 3.9% from January’s 4.1%, still well above the RBA’s 2-3% target band. Annual inflation excluding volatile items has continued to slow over the last 14 months from a high of 7.2 per cent in December 2022.

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DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Fixing Housing After The Hijack: With Cameron Murray

This is an edited version of a live discussion with Cameron K. Murray, Author of The Great Housing Hijack which reveals how vested interests pull the strings on the property market in Australia, and offers a solution for genuinely affordable housing for those who need it.

With 120,000 people homeless each night and one in five low-income private renters spending more than half their income on rent, it is clear Australia urgently needs a housing policy change.

For anyone who wants to truly understand the housing market in Australia, The Great Housing Hijack is essential reading. Drawing on the best housing policies around the world, Murray shows how Australia could create a genuinely affordable housing program without compromising the interests of existing property owners.

Murray argues that even if more housing were built, the average household would not end up spending any less on housing.

Murray proposes bypassing the private market altogether with a scheme called HouseMate. The federal government would buy or repurpose land, build homes, then sell them at a discounted price to Australians who do not own property.

Perhaps the most controversial argument in The Great Housing Hijack is that planning and zoning rules do not change how much new housing is built, just the location.

Join the debate – you can ask a question live.

https://www.fresheconomicthinking.com/

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