Mapping Mortgage Stress

A deep dive on mortgage stress, using our mapping tools, as we look across Australia to identify the areas with the highest stress counts – defined in cash flow terms.

This is ahead of my upcoming live stream on Tuesday 12th March, where we will look at specific post code level data. Mark your diaries…

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Pop Goes My Budget!

Our latest surveys to the end of February reveals the current state of Household Finances in Australian as measured by cash flow. A record 73.3% of those living in the rental sector are under pressure, while just over half of those with a mortgage are also in net negative cash flow. All up around 48% of households or 4.7 million families are struggling. The causes are clear to see, with costs of living still outstripping real incomes, high mortgage interest rates thanks to RBA monetary policy and rental cost driven sky high. Massive net migration, and bad government housing policies have created this disaster, which will likely be with us for decades. Housing affordability is shot.

So, in today’s show I will walk through the latest findings, ahead of a live show during which we will examine the data at a post code level. That show will be on Tuesday 12th March 2024.

But here we examine how we measure cash flow stress, examine the latest results across mortgage, rental, investor and overall financial stress, and also look at our price scenarios for the months ahead, alongside our estimates of mortgage defaults in the next 12 months.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts

The Rental Market Is Broken…

In my latest surveys we showed that cash flow stress among households has risen to an all time high of 73.47% or more than 2.27 million households.

Mapping the Market data from CoreLogic shows the high proportion of areas where house rents have risen by 20% or more across Sydney, and Melbourne, those here, some areas especially to the east of the city did not follow suite. House rents in Brisbane showed more diversity, though central Brisbane saw consider considerable hikes. Adelaide and Perth also had many hot spot areas across house rentals, with some areas to the east of both CBD’s reporting slower growth rates over the past year.

That said, Canberra and Hobart bucked the trend with little or no growth – of course there are rents controls in the ACT which helps to moderate rents.

All this means that for many renters the ability to house themselves has become even more expensive, and this of course flows through into the inflation data with all rents – not just new rents running close to 10% annualised. It’s a real mess, and leading to real social consequences.

Then again, there are some winners as according to data from SQM Research residential landlords in some inner-city and middle ring suburbs pocketed up to $56,000 extra rental income in the past 12 months as rents hit record highs across the major capital cities.

A critical factor here is that some landlords, sitting on strong capital gains, are looking to crystalize their paper profits so have listed their rental property for sale, a trend we see most strongly in Melbourne, but it is spreading elsewhere. In addition, higher rents are not enough to cover the increased mortgage costs, even after negative gearing, so the supply on rental property is on the decline at a time when migration continues to run hot.

The Rental Market Is Broken but do those in political circles want to tackle this critical issue? Lip-service apart, I suspect not. So to that extent, Australia in broken too.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Latest Household Financial Stress And Modelling

This is an edited version of our live discussion about the current state of play of mortgage, rental and financial household stress across Australia, based on our latest surveys and modelling. We had our post code engine online.

Find out more beforehand by watching this show: Many Households Are In Trouble – Mate! https://youtu.be/np4H9RkPqEo

Original live version with chat here: https://youtube.com/live/Qs__lYQMhP4

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Many Households Are In Trouble – Mate!

We walk through the latest from our surveys and modelling ahead of our live show which will be on 13th February 2024 at 8pm Sydney where we will look at specific post codes in more detail.

Household financial stress continues to bite, and is spreading into many different types of communities.

Ahead, we do not expect cash flow to improve for many, as mortgage rates will not be falling very soon, the costs of living continue to rise and income growth in real terms is muted, at best.

If you want data on a specific post code, put it in the comments and I will either cover it Tuesday week, or via a separate show.

If you want to get the full data set, this is available via Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/DigitalFinanceAnalytics

Our One to One Service is also available: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Falling Trend Hours Worked May Signal Interest Rate Peak!

Economists got a surprise today as employment fell 65,100 in the month, compared with an average expected rise of 15,000, as hours worked and participation both fell. That said, the prospect of the RBA delivering one final rise in February appears over. Only a big surprise in the December quarter inflation numbers, which will be released on January 31, could force economists to revise their near universal forecast for rates to remain on hold next month. And the monthly inflation data doesn’t point to a shock.

The ABS Labour Force statistics for December was based on surveys run from Sunday 26 November to Saturday 9 December, and collected over the period from Sunday 3 December to Wednesday 20 December. They also rotate the sample, with the new incoming group showing a higher unemployment rate than the outgoing group.

The results from the survey showed that in seasonally adjusted terms with employment dropping by 65,000 people, along with a small fall in the number of unemployed people (1,000), the unemployment rate remained steady at 3.9 per cent in December.

Actually, the falling participation rate stopped the Unemployment rate from climbing as hiring eases, though perhaps most concerning is the trend in hours worked, which has been falling for the better part of a year. How much of this is summer holiday related is an open question, but it seems more structural to me. We also need to note the loss of 106,000 full time jobs, compared to 41,000 part time roles, especially among part-time women. And remember given the current migration settings we need more that 30,000 additional jobs just to stand still.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Latest Household Financial Stress Modelling And Analysis

This is an edit of our latest live discussion as I walked through our recent survey results, and discussed the outcomes at a postcode level.

For the full survey analysis see our show here: https://youtu.be/G1T72rUFlgA

For additional post codes requested see here: https://youtu.be/TJ65WucbZAM

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Household Financial Distress Spreads Further…

Ahead of my live show on Tuesday evening, today I walk through the latest from our household surveys, with a focus on mortgage, rental, investor and overall household financial stress.

We look at the top stressed postcodes as represented by the data to end December 2023. We also map that data for selected urban centres, as well as default estimates.

If you want data on a specific postcode to be featured on Tuesday drop it in the comments on YouTube.

Details of our One to One Service is also found on our blog: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!

More from our Property Insider, as Edwin and I discuss the latest from the markets. The numbers are falling in the approach to the end of the year, significantly. We also look at a prime example of the need to lookout below!

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

Buying property, is both challenging and adversarial. The vendor has a professional on their side.

Emotions run high – price discovery and price transparency are hard to find – then there is the wasted time and financial investment you make.

Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

Shoot Ribbon an email on info@ribbonproperty.com.au & use promo code: DFA-WTW/MARTIN to receive your 10% DISCOUNT OFFER.

DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Latest Household Financial Stress Modelling And Analysis

This is an edited version of my latest live discussion as I explore the latest from our surveys, with a focus on post code level analysis.

Original live stream and chat here: https://youtube.com/live/f_3K6ehCqvg

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/