Anemic Retail Sales Continues

The trend estimate for Australian retail turnover rose 0.1 per cent in April 2017 following a 0.1 per cent rise in March 2017. Compared to April 2016 the trend estimate rose 2.7 per cent according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Retail Trade figures.

There were rises in food retailing (0.2 per cent), cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (0.2 per cent), department stores (0.4 per cent), and other retailing (0.4 per cent); whilst household goods retailing fell  (0.1 per cent) and clothing footwear and personal accessory retailing fell (0.4 per cent).

In April 2017, South Australia led the rise  (0.4 per cent), with rises also in Australian Capital Territory (0.3 per cent), Victoria (0.3 per cent), Tasmania (0.1 per cent), and New South Wales. Queensland and Western Australia did not change, the Northern Territory fell slightly. (0.1 per cent).

The more reported, but less reliable seasonally adjusted retail turnover rose 1.0 per cent in April 2017, following a fall of 0.2 per cent in March 2017, so look out for the “better than expected” commentary. We do not believe it.

Anyhow, for the records, in seasonally adjusted terms, there were rises in food retailing (1.2 per cent), cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (1.1 per cent), department stores (2.5 per cent), other retailing (0.6 per cent), household goods retailing (0.4 per cent) and clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (0.3 per cent).

In seasonally adjusted terms there were rises in all states and territories. Queensland (2.4 per cent) led the rise, and there were also rises in Victoria (1.0 per cent), South Australia (1.1 per cent), Western Australia (0.4 per cent), New South Wales (0.1 per cent), Tasmania (1.2 per cent), the Northern Territory (1.8 per cent) and the Australian Capital Territory (0.9 per cent) in April 2017.

Online retail turnover contributed 3.4 per cent to total retail turnover in original terms.

Retail Turnover Down Again In March

Australian retail turnover fell 0.1 per cent in March 2017, seasonally adjusted, according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Retail Trade figures. This follows a fall of 0.2 per cent in February 2017. This continues the weakness which is related to big debt and flat incomes. QLD looks a particular concern.

In seasonally adjusted terms, there were falls in food retailing (-0.5 per cent), cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (-0.5 per cent), department stores (-0.6 per cent) and household goods retailing (-0.1 per cent). These falls were offset by rises in other retailing (1.1 per cent) and clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (0.4 per cent).

In seasonally adjusted terms, there were falls in Queensland (-1.3 per cent), the Northern Territory (-1.8 per cent), South Australia (-0.1 per cent) and Tasmania (-0.2 per cent). There were rises in Victoria (0.4 per cent), New South Wales (0.1 per cent), the Australian Capital Territory (0.3 per cent) and Western Australia (0.1 per cent).

The trend estimate for Australian retail turnover was relatively unchanged (0.0 per cent) in March 2017 following a 0.1 per cent rise in February 2017. Compared to March 2016, the trend estimate rose 2.5 per cent.

Online retail turnover contributed 3.7 per cent to total retail turnover in original terms.

In seasonally adjusted volume terms, turnover rose 0.1 per cent in the March quarter 2017, following a rise of 0.7 per cent in the December quarter 2016. The main contributors to this rise were food retailing (0.6 per cent), household goods retailing (0.4 per cent) and other retailing (0.4 per cent).

Retail Turnover Fell In February

Australian retail turnover fell 0.1 per cent in February 2017, seasonally adjusted, according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Retail Trade figures.

This follows a rise of 0.4 per cent in January 2017.

The trend estimate for Australian retail turnover rose 0.1 per cent in February 2017 following a 0.2 per cent rise in January 2017. Compared to February 2016, the trend estimate rose 2.9 per cent.

In seasonally adjusted terms, there were falls in clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (-2.5 per cent) and household goods retailing (-0.4 per cent). These falls were offset by rises in food retailing (0.3 per cent) and department stores (0.8 per cent). Other retailing, and cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services were relatively unchanged (0.0 per cent).

The fall in clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing was across both industry subgroups. Clothing retailing fell 2.9 per cent and footwear and other personal accessory retailing fell 1.9 per cent, in seasonally adjusted terms.

In seasonally adjusted terms, there were falls in Western Australia (-0.7 per cent), Victoria (-0.3 per cent), Queensland (-0.2 per cent), Tasmania (-0.5 per cent), and the Australian Capital Territory (-0.5 per cent). There were rises in New South Wales (0.4 per cent), the Northern Territory (0.4 per cent), and South Australia (0.1 per cent).

Online retail turnover contributed 3.6 per cent to total retail turnover in original terms.

Retail Turnover Rises In January

Australian retail turnover rose 0.2 per cent in January 2017, in trend terms, following a 0.3 per cent rise in December 2016. Compared to January 2016, the trend estimate rose 3.2 per cent according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Retail Trade figures.  Victoria showed the strongest growth. We think the lift was thanks to bargains available in the January sales.

Clothing, footwear and personal accessories rose the most in trend terms.

But in seasonally adjusted terms, there were rises in household goods retailing (1.4 per cent), cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (1.1 per cent), food retailing (0.2 per cent), and other retailing (0.1 per cent).

These rises were offset by falls in clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (-0.4 per cent) and department stores (-0.5 per cent). This follows a fall of 0.1 per cent in December 2016.

The main contribution to the rise in household goods retailing was the Electrical and electronic goods industry subgroup, which rose 2.4 per cent in January in seasonally adjusted terms.

In seasonally adjusted terms, there were rises in Victoria (1.1 per cent), New South Wales (0.2 per cent), South Australia (0.6 per cent), Western Australia (0.3 per cent), the Australian Capital Territory (1.2 per cent) and Tasmania (0.4 per cent). There was a fall in the Northern Territory (-0.8 per cent). Queensland was relatively unchanged (0.0%).

Online retail turnover contributed 3.6 per cent to total retail turnover in original terms.

Trend Retail Turnover Up Just A Bit In December

Australian retail turnover rose 0.3 per cent in December 2016 following a 0.3 per cent rise in November 2016. Compared to December 2015, the trend estimate rose 3.2 per cent, according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Retail Trade figures.  We would have expected a higher number, given the Christmas rush, but perhaps households waited until the January sales.

 

In Seasonal adjusted terms, turnover fell 0.1 per cent in December 2016, seasonally adjusted, this follows a rise of 0.1 per cent in November 2016.

In seasonally adjusted terms, there were falls in household goods retailing (-2.3 per cent), and other retailing (-0.2 per cent). These falls were offset by rises in food retailing (0.5 per cent), clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (1.4 per cent), cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (0.2 per cent), and department stores (0.3 per cent).

The fall in household goods retailing is the result of a fall in the Hardware, building and garden supplies retailing industry subgroup, which fell 6.6 per cent in December after rises in each of the previous four months.

In seasonally adjusted terms, there were falls in Victoria (-0.4 per cent), New South Wales (-0.3 per cent), and the Australian Capital Territory (-0.7 per cent). There were rises in South Australia (1.2 per cent), Western Australia (0.6 per cent), the Northern Territory (1.1 per cent) and Tasmania (0.5 per cent). Queensland was relatively unchanged (0.0 per cent).

Online retail turnover contributed 3.8 per cent to total retail turnover in original terms.

In seasonally adjusted volume terms, turnover rose 0.9 per cent in the December quarter 2016, following a relatively unchanged result (0.0 per cent) in the September quarter 2016. The main contributors to this rise were household goods retailing (2.5 per cent), clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (1.5 per cent) and food retailing (0.3 per cent).

Retail Turnover Higher in November

The trend estimate for Australian retail turnover rose 0.4 per cent in November 2016 following a 0.4 per cent rise in October 2016, according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Retail Trade figures.

Compared to November 2015 the trend estimate rose 3.4 per cent.

Online retail turnover contributed 4.1 per cent to total retail turnover in original terms.

In (the less reliable) seasonally adjusted terms, retail turnover rose 0.2 per cent in November, following a rise of 0.5 per cent in October 2016.

In seasonally adjusted terms, there were rises in food retailing (0.4 per cent), clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (1.7 per cent) and household goods retailing (0.2 per cent). There were falls in cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (-0.8 per cent), department stores (-0.3 per cent) and other retailing (-0.1 per cent).

In seasonally adjusted terms, there were rises in New South Wales (0.5 per cent), Victoria (0.4 per cent), Queensland (0.1 per cent), Tasmania (0.1 per cent) and the Northern Territory (0.3 per cent). There were falls in Western Australia (-0.6 per cent), South Australia (-0.4 per cent) and the Australian Capital Territory (-0.1 per cent).

 

Retail Turnover Holds Up

Australian retail turnover rose in trend terms, 0.4 per cent in October 2016 following a 0.4 per cent rise in September 2016. Compared to October 2015 the trend estimate rose 3.3 per cent.0.5 per cent in October 2016 according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Retail Trade figures.

retail-october-16

In seasonally adjusted terms, retail turnover rose 0.5 per cent in October 2016, seasonally adjusted, following a 0.6 per cent rise in September 2016.

In seasonally adjusted terms, there were rises in food retailing (0.6 per cent), household goods retailing (0.7 per cent), other retailing (0.8 per cent) and cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (0.4 per cent). There were falls in clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (-0.4 per cent) and department stores (-0.4 per cent) in October 2016.

In seasonally adjusted terms, there were rises in Queensland (0.8 per cent), Victoria (0.5 per cent), New South Wales (0.3 per cent), Western Australia (0.4 per cent), the Australian Capital Territory (0.9 per cent), Tasmania (0.6 per cent) and the Northern Territory (0.3 per cent). South Australia (-0.1 per cent) fell in seasonally adjusted terms.

Online retail turnover contributed 3.9 per cent to total retail turnover in original terms.

Trend Retail Sales Moderate In September

The trend estimate for Australian retail turnover rose 0.2 per cent in September 2016 following a 0.3 per cent rise in August 2016. Compared to September 2015 the trend estimate rose 2.8 per cent, according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Retail Trade figures.

In trend terms,  there were rises in household goods retailing (0.2 per cent), cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (0.9 per cent), clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (0.2 per cent) and food retailing (0.2 per cent). Department stores fell (-0.3 per cent). Other retailing was static (-0.0 per cent) in September 2016.

retail-sep16In trend terms, there were rises in Queensland (0.6 per cent), Australian Capital Territory (0.4 per cent), South Australia (0.3 per cent), New South Wales (0.2 per cent), Victoria (0.2 per cent) and Tasmania (0.1 per cent). Western Australia fell (0.1 per cent) and the Northern Territory fell (0.1 per cent).

retail-sep16-statesOnline retail turnover contributed 3.5 per cent to total retail turnover in original terms.

In seasonally adjusted volume terms, turnover fell 0.1 per cent in the September quarter 2016, following a rise of 0.3 per cent in the June quarter 2016. The main contributors to this fall were food retailing (-0.7 per cent) and department stores (-3.6 per cent).

Retail trend turnover rises 0.1 per cent in August

The trend estimate for Australian retail turnover rose 0.1 per cent in August 2016 following a 0.1 per cent rise in July 2016 according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Retail Trade figures. Compared to August 2015 the trend estimate rose 2.6 per cent.

retail-aug-2016

Australian retail turnover rose 0.4 per cent in August 2016, seasonally adjusted. This follows a relatively unchanged (0.0 per cent) July 2016.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the largest rise was in department stores (3.5 per cent), which followed a fall in July of 5.8 per cent. There were also seasonally adjusted rises in cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (1.2 per cent), food retailing (0.3 per cent) and household goods retailing (0.2 per cent). There were falls in other retailing (-0.6 per cent) and clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (-0.4 per cent).

retail-aug-2016-stateIn seasonally adjusted terms, there were rises in Victoria (0.7 per cent), New South Wales (0.5 per cent), Queensland (0.7 per cent), South Australia (0.4 per cent) and the Australian Capital Territory (0.7 per cent). There were falls in Western Australia (-0.5 per cent), Northern Territory (-0.5 per cent) and Tasmania (-0.1 per cent).

Online retail turnover contributed 3.3 per cent to total retail turnover in original terms.

Retail Turnover Unchanged In July

Australian retail turnover was relatively unchanged (0.0 per cent) in July 2016, seasonally adjusted, according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Retail Trade figures. This follows a rise of 0.1 per cent in June 2016.

The trend estimate rose 0.1 per cent in July 2016 following a 0.1 per cent rise in June 2016. Compared to July 2015 the trend estimate rose 2.7 per cent.

Retail-Trend-Jul-2016

In seasonally adjusted terms, there were rises in food retailing (0.7 per cent), cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (1.2 per cent), other retailing (0.2 per cent) and clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (0.3 per cent). There were falls in department stores (-6.2 per cent) and household goods retailing (-0.7 per cent) in July 2016.

In seasonally adjusted terms, there were rises in Queensland (0.5 per cent), South Australia (0.5 per cent), Western Australia (0.3 per cent), the Australian Capital Territory (1.2 per cent), Tasmania (0.5 per cent) and the Northern Territory (0.4 per cent). There were falls in Victoria (-0.6 per cent) and New South Wales (-0.2 per cent).

Online retail turnover contributed 3.1 per cent to total retail turnover in original terms. Compared to July 2015, online retail rose 4.1 per cent.