How the blockchain will transform housing markets

From The Conversation.

An emerging technology, blockchain, could transform the way we buy and sell real estate by doing away with the hidden costs and inefficiencies of our housing markets.

Blockchain is an online ledger that records transactions. It’s capable of recording the movement of any kind of asset from one owner to the next.

It’s public and isn’t owned by any one corporation, there are no charges to record transactions. Its openness ensures the integrity of transactions and ownership, as everyone involved has a stake in keeping it honest.

This means there are fewer intermediaries; less middle-men who increase the costs and time to complete a transaction.

There are risks associated with the system as it’s only as strong as the code that supports it, which has come under attack in the past. Despite this, examples from overseas show it is possible to apply this technology successfully to our housing market.

Problems in how the property market is run

For buyers able to find the right property, secure a mortgage and save a deposit, they must also pay for a range of so-called “hidden costs”. These are additional payments associated with the transaction over the cost of the home itself. Many legal and title-related costs would become near-obsolete in a blockchain system.

The combined costs of title registration, title insurance, and legal fees associated with register the property transfer approach A$1,000 on the average Australian house. Costs continue to rise as the prudent buyer undertakes further due diligence, through building inspection documentation, previous sales records and so forth.

On top of the financial cost, it then typically takes over a month to settle a real estate transaction in Australia. The blockchain system can speed things up, as currently tedious checks undertaken by hand, move to an automated system overseen and approved by the relevant stakeholders.

There is also the risk that land titles offices with a single database simply get things wrong too. In 2016 it was reported that 300 incorrect certificates had been issued in NSW, with 140 of those being recent property buyers affected by government plans for major motorways in Sydney’s west.

There are now concerns that the system’s quality could be compromised in several states, including NSW and South Australia, as land titles offices become privatised.

A blockchain real estate market

If blockchain were applied to the property market in Australia, every property would be encoded with a unique identifier. Property IDs already exist in most land registry systems, so these would need to be migrated to a blockchain.

Next, the blockchain ecosystem then needs to have defined who the people behind the transaction are, those stakeholders that include the owner, lender, and government.

Transactions of property are conducted via “smart contracts” – digital rules in the blockchain that process the agreement and any specified conditions. Buying and selling could still take place via agents, or the smart contract can be advanced to incorporate the sale rules and make this decision automatically. The blockchain for each property grows as transactions are added to the ledger.

A housing market without agents, conveyancers and a land-titles office may seem decades away, but a handful of countries have already piloted blockchain land registration system.

In Australia, our current land titles system is among the world’s best, but it is not infallible. A range of hidden taxes and transaction costs increase market inefficiencies.

And while the electronic system Property Exchange Australia or PEXA, has brought us to the point of a near paperless property market, it’s still an intermediary between the parties and the record of the transfer in the Torrens system – our current land title system.

The added advantage of a blockchain system is in eliminating risks, in particular the risk of records being accessed fraudulently and altered or deleted because it is a permanent and immutable record. This means that a huge amount of computing power would be required, probably along with some collusion, and the alteration is easily detected across the ledger. That’s not to say the blockchain system is perfect.

Blockchain’s advantage in restricting any changes to historical records becomes a disadvantage when incorrect or fraudulent entries are added. Digital currency managers, Ether and Bitfinex, learned this the hard way through cyber attacks.

Last year these attacks siphoned off over US$50 million in ether tokens from The DAO, the largest crowdfunded venture capital fund. This breach led to a controversial split of Ether into two separate active digital currencies.

Only months later, Hong Kong-based crytocurrency trading firm, Bitfinex, had the equivalent of US$68 million stolen by hackers in a security breach reminiscent of the hack that bought down Mt Gox in 2014. It is little comfort to cautious market regulators that the thieves behind these attacks can not spend it without revealing their identity on the blockchain.

These hacks demonstrate that blockchain systems are only as secure as the code which supports them. As a nascent technology, its cracks are detected only when they are exposed.

Where blockchain has worked before

Sweden became the first western country to explore the use of blockchain for real estate in July last year. At the time, the Swedish Land Registry partnered with blockchain startup ChromaWay to test how parties to a real estate transaction – the buyer, seller, lender, government – could track the deal’s progress on a blockchain.

Other countries at the forefront of blockchain for real estate include The Republic of Georgia, Honduras, and Brazil which announced a pilot program earlier this month. While this might seem like a disparate list, it’s in these countries where the long-term potential of a blockchain for real estate are most significant.

Systemic corruption and insecure database management in these countries, and many other emerging economies, is seen as a major constraint on growth and prosperity. Why would you invest in a house, or any other asset, if there is a distinct possibility that the record of your ownership could simply disappear?

With ever increasing demands for improvements to transaction efficiency and local real estate industry giants like CoreLogic appointing research teams dedicated to new technology applications, it might not be long before we see a real estate blockchain system in Australia.

Author: Danika Wright, Lecturer in Finance, University of Sydney

Negative gearing distorting Sydney housing market: Report

From Australian Broker.

Sydney’s housing affordability crisis is being artificially exacerbated by “lunacy” tax incentives, a new report has claimed.

According to the analysis by the UNSW’s City Futures Research Centre, up to 90,000 properties are sitting empty in some of Sydney’s most sought-after suburbs as investors chase capital gains over rental returns.

The analysis’ researchers, Professor Bill Randolph and Dr Laurence Troy, said this is thanks to the “perverse outcomes” of tax incentives such as negative gearing, Fairfax has reported.

“Leaving housing empty is both profitable and subsidised by government,” Randolph and Troy told Fairfax.

“This is taxation lunacy and a national scandal.”

According to Fairfax, the 2011 census revealed that in Sydney’s “emptiest” neighbourhood of the CBD, Haymarket and The Rocks, one in seven dwellings was vacant.

Close behind were Manly-Fairlight, Potts Point-Woolloomooloo, Darlinghurst and Neutral Bay-Kirribilli, which all had vacancy levels above 13%. These neighbourhoods, together with central Sydney, account for nearly 7,200 empty homes.

The UNSW analysis of the 90,000 unoccupied dwellings across metropolitan Sydney compared the number of empty homes in a suburb against the rate of return investors made by renting out a property.

It found that properties in neighbourhoods with lower rental yields and higher expected capital gains were more likely to be unoccupied.

Gordon-Killara on the north shore had the highest share of vacant apartments, with more than one in six unoccupied on Census night, according to Fairfax. By contrast, only one in 42 dwellings (2.4%) in Green Valley-Cecil Hills, in Sydney’s west, was unoccupied.

These results suggest property investors in some of Sydney’s most desirable areas have become indifferent to whether their investment property is rented or not. Instead, investors are chasing capital gains with rental losses offset by negative gearing and capital gains concessions.

According to Troy and Randolph, this calls into question Sydney’s housing supply and affordability problem.

“If you choose to accept that there is a housing shortage in Sydney, then the sheer scale and location of these figures strongly suggest that this is an artificially produced scarcity,” they said, according to Fairfax.

Home Lending Rotation Continued In September

The latest home finance data from the ABS confirm the trend that investor loans are on the slide, and being replaced by growth in owner occupied loans and refinancing. In September, trend,  owner occupied housing commitments rose 2.0% to $20.5 bn while investment housing commitments fell 1.9% to $12.9 bn. The number of commitments for owner occupied housing finance rose 0.7% in September whilst the number of commitments for the purchase of new dwellings rose 1.3% the number of commitments for the purchase of established dwellings rose 0.8%. The number of commitments for the construction of dwellings fell 0.1%.

The proportion of investor loans fell back to 48%, whereas a few months back it was well above 50%. Refinance of owner occupied loans continues to rise, to nearly 20% of all loans written, a level not seen since 2012. So the relative shift away from investment loans is confirmed, in response to regulatory intervention.

Home-Loan-Flows-ABS-Sept-2015In stock terms, the mix of investment loans – as reported in original terms, has fallen back to 38%, but is still way higher than when regulators officially started to worry about the systemic risks of investment loans above mid thirties.  we can expect to see further data revisions in coming months, as banks continue to reclassify loans.

Home-Lending-Stock-ABS-Sept-2015Turning to first time buyers, the number of first home buyer commitments as a percentage of total owner occupied housing finance commitments fell to 15.4% in September 2015 from 15.8% in August.  However, this does not tell the full story.

FTB-Home-Loans-ABS-Sept-2015Looking at DFA adjusted data, to take account of first time buyers going direct to the investment sector, we see a further fall in new FTB investor loans, down more than 2% in the month. The number of FTB loans for owner occupation rose however, by 6%, so the overall volume of loans is up. The average FTB loan was 2% larger this month.

FTB-DFA-Sept-2015  The strategies of the banks are clear, focus on owner occupied loans, and offer deep discounts to wrest refinanced loans from competitors, whilst using back-book repricing to fund it. At what point will the regulators step-up their surveillance of owner occupied lending? We think they should do so now.

 

 

Financial Stability Review Says Housing Risks Higher Than Thought

The RBA released their latest Financial Stability Review today. It is worth reading through the 66 pages, because there are a number of important themes, relating to housing. Underlying this though is a beat which could be interpreted as the RBA admitting they have misread the housing sector.

In summary, they recognise that underwriting standards were not as good as initially thought, the investment loan and interest only loan sectors carry potentially higher risks, and the changes to capital and regulatory standards will have a mitigating impact, over the medium term. That said, households remain well placed (despite the highest ever debt at lowest ever interest rates).

6tl-hhfinThey are however concerned about the impact of the current residential construction boom.

They also highlight risks from lending by banks to the commercial property sector, and the ongoing use of SMSF’s to invest in property.

There is also a section of the capital ratios for the banks, both under then IRB and standard approaches to capital ratios. Of particular note is for banks using the standard approach, they show how the presence of Lender Mortgage Insurance (LMI) and different LVR’s impact the capital weights. Despite the upcoming move from 17 to 25 basis points for banks under the advanced IRB approach, banks with the standard approach remain at a competitive disadvantage.

ABC Highlights Housing Risk On 7:30

ABC’s 7:30 did a segment on housing risks, and the implications should the bubble burst.  They discussed the risks if interest rates were to rise, against the context of high household debt. SATYAJIT DAS, FINANCIAL ANALYST said “Australians have been playing this Ponzi game of housing where I buy a house and the value goes up and what happens is then I make money by selling it to somebody else and the whole game depends on the buyer always being able to borrow ever larger sums of money and that all depends on incomes and employment, and that side of the economy, the real economy, is looking extremely weak”.

They also flagged the potential for the RBA to cut the cash rate, in response to banks lifting their mortgage rates.

 

 

 

New Home Sales Falter in May – HIA

The HIA New Home Sales Report, a survey of Australia’s largest volume builders, recorded the first decline for 2015 in May. The four month winning streak came to a modest end in May 2015 with total seasonally adjusted new home sales falling by 2.3 per cent. The decline was driven by a 5.1 per cent dip in detached house sales, reflecting weaker monthly demand in four out of the five states surveyed. DFA observes that the rotation from houses to units continues to build momentum, in answer to the demand for investment property, where returns to builders are also higher.

The mature stage of the new home building cycle primarily reflects further momentum in the ‘multi-unit’ sector, together with persistence of healthy conditions in New South Wales and Victoria. New sales of multi-units increased by 7.6 per cent during the month to yet a new record level, with sales volumes up by 26.7 per cent over the three months to May. Meanwhile strength in detached houses sales is evident in NSW and Victoria, with growth in the May 2015 ‘quarter’ of 5.2 per cent and 6.2 per cent, respectively.

HIA-May-2015In the month of May 2015 detached house sales increased by 3.3 per cent in Queensland, but fell by 2.3 per cent in NSW, 9.9 per cent in Victoria, 5.2 per cent in South Australia, and 8.1 per cent in Western Australia. In the May 2015 quarter, detached house sales increased in NSW (+5.2 per cent) and Victoria (+6.2 per cent). Sales fell over the three month period in SA (-8.1 per cent), Queensland (-7.5 per cent), and WA (-1.3 per cent).

Perspectives on the Housing Debate

Last week amongst all the noise on housing there were some important segments from the ABC which made some significant contributions to the debate. These are worth viewing.

First Lateline interviewed the Grattan Institute CEO on the social and political impacts of housing policy, and also covered negative gearing.

Second The Business covered foreign investors, restrictions on investment lending and the implications for non-bank lenders who are not caught by the APRA “guidance”.

Third, a segment from Insiders on Sunday, dealing with both the economic arguments and the political backcloth.

Next a segment from Australia Wide which explores the tensions dealing with housing in a major growing city, Brisbane. No-one wants building near their backyard, so how to deal with population growth.

 

Banking: Australian Banks’ Moves to Curb Residential Investment Lending Are Credit-Positive – Moody’s

In a  brief note, Moody’s acknowledged that the bank’s recent moves to adjust their residential loan criteria could be positive for their credit ratings, but also underscored a number of potential risks in the Australian housing sector including elevated and rising house prices, declining mortgage affordability, and record levels of household indebtedness. As a result, they believe more will need to be done to tackle the risks in the portfolio.

Moody’s says the recent initiatives are credit positive since they reduce the banks’ exposure to a higher-risk loan segment. At the same time, it is likely that further additional steps will be required because the growing imbalances in the Australian housing market pose a longer-term challenge to the Australian banks’ credit profiles, over and above the immediate concerns relating to investment lending.

Therefore they expect the banks first to curtail their exposure to high LTV loans and investment lending further over the coming months; and second, they will gradually improve the quantity and quality of their capital through a combination of upward revisions to mortgage risk weights and capital increases. This is likely to happen over the next 18 months or so.

Housing Market Imbalances Pose Long-term Challenges for Australian Banks – Moody’s

Moody’s Investors Service says that underwriting discipline and capital are key variables in maintaining the health of bank credit profiles in Australia, in the face of rising housing market imbalances.

“Rapid house appreciation, particularly in Sydney, as well as lending imbalances are increasing the risks of a housing market correction,” says Ilya Serov, a Moody’s Vice President and Senior Credit Officer. “This poses long-term challenges to Australian bank credit profiles”.

“We expect that over time the banks will revise up their mortgage risk weights and capital levels to better recognize the rising tail risks embedded in their housing portfolios,” adds Serov .

Moody’s analysis is contained in its just-released report titled “Rising Housing Market Imbalances Pose Long-Term Challenges for Australian Banks,” and is authored by Serov.

Moody’s report points out that dividend policy initiatives announced recently by major Australian banks — including National Australia Bank’s announcement of a capital raising of AUD5.5 billion — represent the start of a capital accumulation phase that is likely to extend well into 2016.

In Moody’s assessment, the risks in Australia’s housing market risks are skewed towards the downside. While over the short run, stability in the housing market will be supported by low interest rates and the healthy state of bank balance sheets, elevated and rising house prices are intensifying imbalances in the housing market.

Moody’s evaluation of the Australian housing market suggests that housing affordability is falling, despite the low interest rate environment. Similarly, lending imbalances, including a decline in the proportion of first-time home buyers and a sharp rise in residential investment activity, pose a further source of risk.

In Moody’s view, Australian banks are well-positioned to adjust their origination practices and capital levels to better recognize the rising tail risks embedded in their housing portfolios.

Moody’s report says likely regulatory changes will see average mortgage risk weights for the major banks in Australia increase to the 20%-25% range, up from the current 15%-20%. It estimates that Australia’s four major banks — National Australia Bank Limited (NAB, rated Aa2 stable, a1), Westpac Banking Corporation (Aa2 stable, a1), Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited (Aa2 stable, a1) and the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (Aa2 stable, a1) — are well-positioned to absorb such a change.

However, Moody’s also anticipates a broader increase in regulatory capital requirements, in line with the November 2014 recommendation by Australia’s independent Financial System Inquiry that Australian bank capital ratios should be “unquestionably strong” and rank in the top quartile of internationally active banks. This scenario would necessitate deeper adjustments to the banks’ dividend policies, and potentially the raising of new capital.

Moody’s report points out that the latest regulatory data suggests that Australian banks have become more conservative in their underwriting, as they have curtailed their exposure to high loan-to-value ratio loans. Such moves would help offset the risks posed by the country’s deepening housing market imbalances.

The rating agency sees ongoing adjustment to banks’ underwriting practices to bring them into line with the guidelines released by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority in December 2014, which include limiting growth in investor housing loans to 10% per annum and specific guidance around stressed debt-service requirements, as supportive of the banks’ high rating levels.

Moody’s report notes that since May 2014, median home prices have risen by 10% nationwide, and by 16% in the core Sydney market . The report further notes that Australian home prices have risen by 23% since the start of the latest interest rate cutting cycle in November 2011.

Overall, Moody’s says that the banks’ asset quality metrics and portfolio quality will remain strong in calendar 2015, supported by Australia’s low interest-rate environment.