You What? The Use Of Cash Is Up!!

An average of more than 50 UK bank branches have closed each month since 2015 and campaigners fear some retailers could stop accepting cash if it becomes too burdensome to process. That said, under government rules, free withdrawals and deposits will need to be available within one mile for people living in urban areas. In rural areas, where there are concerns over “cash deserts”, where the maximum distance is three miles.

This is important because cash remains a necessity for millions of people, research has found, with the elderly and those with disabilities among those likely to struggle. Branches have been more likely to close in disadvantaged areas.

Of course, Banks have pointed to the large reduction in branch use – a trend accelerated by the Covid pandemic – and the popularity of managing money via smartphones, as good reason for diluting their branch network.

But a recent survey by Age UK suggested that, among those who were uncomfortable about digital banking, the key concerns were fraud and scams, a lack of trust in online banking services, and a lack of computer skills.

And now, The British Retail Consortium says cash use has grown for the first time in 10 years as shoppers keep a close eye on their budgets while prices rise, retailers have said. They said 19% of purchases were made with notes and coins last year, echoing a report by banks showing a slight rebound. That’s up from 15% the previous year. Until 2015, notes and coins were used in more than half of transactions and, while card use now dominated, cash still had its benefits. Consumers made smaller but more frequent payments, the survey found.

The consortium said consumers were budgeting carefully to try to cope with cost of living pressures, and there was also a “natural return” for cash after it slumped during the pandemic.

It is essential use of cash is protected, you cannot leave it to the market, where banks are making a killing from extra fees on card transaction costs as a result of removing access to cash.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
You What? The Use Of Cash Is Up!!
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Paying Tax And Interest Through The Nose In A Deep Per Capita Recession!

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released the June quarter National Accounts, which were an unmitigated disaster and confirmed that Australia is in a deep per capita recession.

The economy as measured by real GDP grew by only 0.2% in the September quarter, driven by increased government consumption and capital investment over the quarter and badly missing economists’ expectations of a 0.4% print: Growth over the year was 2.1%, less than population growth over the same period. While the population surge earlier in the year has supported demand overall, it is now rolling over and will not provide the same support in 2024. Or as Luci Ellis, at Westpac put it The Australian economy limped along in the September quarter.

Real per capita GDP has fallen for three of the past five quarters, with the March quarter revised up to flat. Accordingly, GDP per capita fell 0.3% over the year. Expenditure by households was dead flat over the September quarter and would have fallen by around 0.7% per capita. By contrast, growth in both household consumption and GDP over 2023 slowed due to sustained cost of living pressures and higher interest rates. Household consumption would have fallen even further had the savings rate not fallen to just 1.1%, which is the lowest level since December 2007.

The savings rate is now well below the ‘par’ of 6.5% and notionally implies a draw-down on the ‘additional savings’ accumulated during the pandemic – estimated at around $260bn – running at about $12bn a quarter. In total, about $43bn, or 16.5% of this reserve now looks to have been drawn down. Of course these are not equally spread across households, with many now having no buffers at all.

As Westpac put it. the policy drag on Australian households is clearly biting.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Paying Tax And Interest Through The Nose In A Deep Per Capita Recession!
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Youngsters Thrown Under The Bus [Again]

The massive hike in interest rates imposed by the RBA in its attempt to squeeze out inflation is not hitting all household cohorts’ to the same extent. Indeed, some older households with savings and no mortgages are enjoying their wealth boost, after years of low rates eroded their incomes. It is worth noting that the rate of rate increases is the sharpest lift in mortgage rates on record.

Overall mortgage stress, defined in negative cash flow terms has never been higher, as we discussed in our recent live show.

Within that, the consequences are perhaps most profound for younger, often more leveraged households. Indeed, the 2023 Risk Radar Report from credit bureau Experian shows that recent first home buyers that purchased in 2019 or later are suffering the highest rates of mortgage stress, as well as missed payments.

A decline in living standards will most acutely be felt by younger cohorts, as well as those with big mortgages held into retirement and beyond.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Youngsters Thrown Under The Bus [Again]
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More Kiwis Are Selling For A Loss!

Recent property purchasers in New Zealand are more likely now to sell at a loss, according to property data company CoreLogic’s latest Pain and Gain Report.

The report found 7.4% of the residential properties sold across the entire country in the September quarter were sold for less than their owners paid for them. But in Auckland, where 11.3% of sales fetched prices below what owners had paid for them. Those least likely to make a loss were in Christchurch where the loss making rate was just 4.7% of total sales.

The proportion of loss making sales has increased rapidly since the beginning of 2021 and is now at its highest point since 2015.

The median size of the loss on properties sold for less than their purchase price was $45,000. However that would likely balloon out to $70,000 or more once selling expenses such as agent’s fees and legal expenses are added.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
More Kiwis Are Selling For A Loss!
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Spend More, To Buy Less!

The ugly truth about inflation is households are having to pay more, to buy less.

We have seen this in a number of data points, the most recent is from the UK, where the Office of National Statistics just released their latest data for October. It revealed that UK retail sales fell unexpectedly, adding to the impression that a string of interest-rate hikes designed to beat down inflation is beginning to stymie economic activity.

This is an early indication that overall economic output will probably be weak in the fourth quarter.

Economists were expecting a rise of 0.4% for October. Instead, sales fell to their lowest since February 2021 when Covid restrictions were in place, with retailers citing the cost-of-living crisis and bad weather for the poor performance. It bodes ill for the “golden quarter,” the run-up to Christmas when stores can make a majority of their yearly profits.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Spend More, To Buy Less!

The ugly truth about inflation is households are having to pay more, to buy less.

We have seen this in a number of data points, the most recent is from the UK, where the Office of National Statistics just released their latest data for October. It revealed that UK retail sales fell unexpectedly, adding to the impression that a string of interest-rate hikes designed to beat down inflation is beginning to stymie economic activity.

This is an early indication that overall economic output will probably be weak in the fourth quarter.

Economists were expecting a rise of 0.4% for October. Instead, sales fell to their lowest since February 2021 when Covid restrictions were in place, with retailers citing the cost-of-living crisis and bad weather for the poor performance. It bodes ill for the “golden quarter,” the run-up to Christmas when stores can make a majority of their yearly profits.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Spend More, To Buy Less!
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Oooch! Wages Up, But Still Below Inflation!

Australian wages accelerated at the fastest pace in over 14 years in the three months through September and reached the Reserve Bank’s forecast peak, while still remaining well below the inflation rate. So in real terms average Australian wages continue to go backwards, against inflation at 5.4%. And productivity improvements are nowhere to be seen, as migration continues at a record pace and unit labour costs rise.

The ABS says the Wage Price Index rose 4% in the third quarter from a year earlier, above economists’ expectations of 3.9% and matching the RBA’s forecast for year’s end, On a quarterly basis, wages grew 1.3%, the highest in the 26-year history of the index.

Annually, seasonally adjusted private sector wages growth was higher than the public sector (4.2% compared to 3.5%). This was the highest annual growth for the private sector since December quarter 2008 and for the public sector since June 2011.

One of the reasons that economists expect Australia will avoid the sort of wage-price spiral that has erupted in some other developed countries is surging immigration that is boosting labor supply and likely reducing the bargaining power of employees.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Oooch! Wages Up, But Still Below Inflation!
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Oooch! Wages Up, But Still Below Inflation!

Australian wages accelerated at the fastest pace in over 14 years in the three months through September and reached the Reserve Bank’s forecast peak, while still remaining well below the inflation rate. So in real terms average Australian wages continue to go backwards, against inflation at 5.4%. And productivity improvements are nowhere to be seen, as migration continues at a record pace and unit labour costs rise.

The ABS says the Wage Price Index rose 4% in the third quarter from a year earlier, above economists’ expectations of 3.9% and matching the RBA’s forecast for year’s end, On a quarterly basis, wages grew 1.3%, the highest in the 26-year history of the index.

Annually, seasonally adjusted private sector wages growth was higher than the public sector (4.2% compared to 3.5%). This was the highest annual growth for the private sector since December quarter 2008 and for the public sector since June 2011.

One of the reasons that economists expect Australia will avoid the sort of wage-price spiral that has erupted in some other developed countries is surging immigration that is boosting labor supply and likely reducing the bargaining power of employees.

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Latest Household Financial Stress Modelling And Analysis

This is an edited version of a live discussion about our latest financial stress modelling and analysis.

Original live stream here: https://youtube.com/live/bBujFeWj6JM

If you want a specific post code dataset, contact me via the DFA Blog. https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Latest Household Financial Stress Modelling And Analysis
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Housing Affordability Stinks…

We look at the latest analysis of housing affordability, based on a range of data, and conclude that it has rarely been worse. In addition, some players are being highly selective in the way they present the data, understating the true picture for many households. We wonder why?

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
Housing Affordability Stinks...
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