Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has reportedly intervened to scotch reports the May budget will include a measure to allow first home buyers to access funds from their superannuation.
He may believe that’s the end of the story, but in reality it’s the continuation of a too familiar narrative. This is a government of fragile convictions, bereft of ideas and lacking a cohesive policy framework.
This is not the first time the Turnbull government has floated a ‘big thinking’ idea – such as the short-lived income tax sharing arrangement with the states – only to hastily retreat at the first sign of opposition.
The irony will not be lost on anyone that a government which has boasted that it alone has a plan for Australia is manifestly rudderless on a range of policy fronts. On tax reform, energy, health and education the government has proven more adept at setting expectations than delivering on them.
Treasurer Scott Morrison’s second budget will seek to restore confidence in the government’s agenda, such as it is, but the early signs are less than promising. The flailing Mr Morrison, whose budget will also be aimed at securing his hold on the Treasurer’s job, has set very high expectations in an area he can realistically do very little about: housing affordability.
The grand plan floated for putting housing within the reach of first-time home buyers was a proposal to allow young Australians early access to their superannuation to raise funds for a house deposit. The same proposal that was deemed “thoroughly bad” by Mr Turnbull when it was raised two years ago. The fact that the idea resurfaced raises questions not just about the government’s policy acumen but its political smarts as well.
Under the model that reportedly had the favour of the Treasurer, potential home buyers would be able to put their compulsory superannuation contributions into a special-purpose fund for up to three years.
Despite public support by some members of the government’s restive backbench, including resident thorn-in-the-side Tony Abbott, the proposal has been widely condemned by economists and the superannuation industry. Mr Morrison would have been familiar with criticisms that the early release of super would lead to higher home prices.
And that’s in addition to the criticism that allowing young Australians to access their super early would be to the detriment of providing an adequate retirement income. As it is, with a current superannuation guarantee rate of just 9.5 per cent, retirees will be struggling to fund their retirement.
It would have been negligence of the highest order were Mr Morrison to enact bad policy for the sake of being seen to be doing something about housing affordability.
It is one thing for backbenchers to float populist measures in the lead-up to the budget, but Mr Morrison’s conduct on this issue has been reckless. Whether for supporting the flawed proposal or permitting speculation to gain such currency, he stands condemned.
In making housing affordability a cornerstone of his budget, Mr Morrison has again set expectations that the Turnbull government will not be able to meet. While there are assistance measures around the edges that can provide home buyers with some relief, housing affordability is a function of the market. Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce is wrong to assert that there is no housing affordability crisis, but Mr Morrison is no less wrong for pretending that a resolution to housing affordability is in his gift.
As economist Chris Richardson of Deloitte Access Economics told the National Press Club, governments cannot solve housing affordability.
“We now have state and federal politicians talking about housing affordability and their policies, and if we leave families with the impression that governments can solve this, then they’re going to be pretty disappointed,” he said.
“The levers that state and federal governments pull on housing affordability are pretty small levers on a massive thing.”
Mr Morrison would do the nation a favour if he employed similar candour to set the context in which his budget will seek to provide some relief for young home buyers. He would especially do the nation a great service if instead of undermining Australia’s superannuation system he preserved, defended and enhanced its one and only role of providing Australians with a retirement income.