Dwelling approvals decline in December

The number of dwellings approved in Australia fell by 4.1 per cent in December 2018, in trend terms, according to data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today.

“The trend for the total dwelling approvals series has continued to decline over the past year,” said Daniel Rossi, Director of Construction Statistics at the ABS. “The series is now at its lowest level since June 2013.”

The decrease in December was driven by private sector dwellings excluding houses (e.g. townhouses and apartments), which fell 8.5 per cent. Private sector houses also declined, by 1.1 per cent.

Among the states and territories, dwelling approvals fell in December in the Australian Capital Territory (21.3 per cent), Queensland (6.5 per cent), New South Wales (5.0 per cent), Western Australia (3.8 per cent), South Australia (1.5 per cent) and Victoria (1.4 per cent) in trend terms. The Northern Territory (1.7 per cent) and Tasmania (1.1 per cent) recorded increases.

Approvals for private sector houses fell 1.1 per cent in December in trend terms. Queensland (3.6 per cent), New South Wales (1.6 per cent) and Western Australia (0.6 per cent) declined, while increases were recorded in South Australia (0.6 per cent) and Victoria (0.2 per cent).

In seasonally adjusted terms, total dwellings fell by 8.4 per cent in December, driven by a 18.8 per cent decrease in private dwellings excluding houses. Private houses also fell 2.2 per cent.

The value of total building approved fell 1.5 per cent in December, in trend terms, and has fallen for the past 13 months. The value of residential building fell 2.6 per cent, while non-residential building rose 0.2 per cent.

CPI rose 0.5 per cent in the December quarter 2018

The ABS reports that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.5 per cent in the December quarter 2018, which follows a rise of 0.4 per cent in the September quarter.

This means that inflation, on the official measures remains BELOW the RBA’s target range of 2-3%, at 1.8% and may suggest more of a bias towards cutting the cash rate (as we have been suggesting for some time).

Of course the “official” figures bear little resemblance to the real lived experience of many households – and the rental proxy for housing in the figures is understating the real expense of many with mortgages. In fact, one reason why the RBA policy levers look pretty sick is the fact that TRUE inflation in real households is closer to 3.5%, on average and for some even higher. They dropped the cash rate too far and now cannot recover.

The upshot is real net disposable income, after expenditure on necessities is all but shot for many, given the anemic wages growth. This explains why household financial confidence is falling away, as we reported before.

This is how the ABS broke the figures down.

The most significant rises in the December quarter are tobacco (+9.4 per cent), domestic holiday travel and accommodation (+6.2 per cent), fruit (+5.0 per cent), new dwellings purchased by owner-occupiers (+0.4 per cent) and furniture (+1.8 per cent). The rise is partially offset by falls in automotive fuel (-2.5 per cent), audio visual and computing equipment (-3.3 per cent), wine (-1.9 per cent) and telecommunications equipment and services (-1.5 per cent).

While automotive fuel rose 3.3 per cent in October, falls in November and December of 10.8 per cent and 5.0 per cent respectively resulted in a decrease across the quarter of 2.5 per cent.

The CPI rose 1.8 per cent through the year to the December quarter 2018, after increasing 1.9 per cent through the year to the September quarter.

ABS Chief Economist, Bruce Hockman said: “Annual growth in the CPI remains below 2 per cent in the December quarter 2018, with annual growth in tradables inflation of just 0.6 per cent, while non-tradables inflation rose 2.4 per cent. Over the past four years, annual growth in the CPI has only risen above 2 per cent in two of the past 16 quarters.”

Unemployment Down To Record Low

The ABS released the latest employment data for December, and reported a trend estimate of employment increased by 23,100 persons in December 2018, with:

  • the number of unemployed persons decreasing by 3,200 persons;
  • the unemployment rate remaining steady at 5.0%;
  • the participation rate remaining steady at 65.6%; and
  • the employment to population ratio remaining steady at 62.3%.

In fact they revised down last months data to get to the 5%, where it remained in December. This will temper any RBA response to the falling housing market in our view.

Graph 1, Employment to population ratio, Persons, December 2008 to December 2018

Graph 1, Employment to population ratio, Persons, December 2008 to December 2018

The monthly trend unemployment rate increased by 0.1 pts in Western Australia (6.4%) and the Northern Territory (5.0%). It remained unchanged in New South Wales (4.3%), Queensland (6.2%), South Australia (5.8%), Tasmania (5.8%) and the Australian Capital Territory (3.6%). It decreased 0.1 pts in Victoria (4.4%).

They say that over the past year, trend employment increased by 284,100 persons (or 2.3%), which was above the average annual growth rate over the past 20 years of 2.0%. Over the same 12 month period the trend employment to population ratio, which is a measure of how employed the population (aged 15 years and over) is, increased by 0.4 percentage points (pts) to 62.3%.

In monthly terms, trend employment increased by 23,100 persons between November and December 2018. This represents an increase of 0.18%, which was above the monthly average growth rate over the past 20 years of 0.16%.

Underpinning these net changes in employment is extensive dynamic change, which occurs each month in the labour market. In recent months there has generally been around 300,000 people entering and leaving employment in the month. There is also further dynamic change in the hours that people work, which results in changes in the full-time and part-time composition of employment.

In net terms, trend full-time employment increased by 11,800 persons between November and December 2018, and part-time employment increased by 11,200 persons. Compared to a year ago, there are 189,900 more persons employed full-time and 94,200 more persons employed part-time. This compositional shift led to an increase in the part-time share of employment over the past 12 months, from 31.5% to 31.6%.

The trend estimate of monthly hours worked in all jobs increased by 1.1 million hours (or 0.1%) in December 2018, to 1,759.9 million hours. Monthly hours worked increased by 1.5% over the past year, which was below the increase in employed persons (2.3%). The average hours worked per employed person was 138.5 hours per month, or around 31.9 hour per week.

The trend unemployment rate remained steady at 5.0% in December 2018. The number of unemployed persons decreased by 3,200 to 670,900 persons. Over the past year, the trend unemployment rate decreased by 0.5%, with the number of unemployed decreasing by 46,900 persons.

The trend participation rate remained steady at 65.6% in December 2018. The female participation rate increased to 60.5% and the male participation rate remained steady at 70.9%.

The labour force includes the total number of employed and unemployed persons. Over the past year, the labour force increased by 237,200 persons (1.8%). This rate of increase was above the rate of increase for the total Civilian Population aged 15 years and over (339,900 persons, or 1.7%).

The trend participation rate for 15-64 year olds, which controls (in part) for the effects of an ageing population remained steady at 78.0%. The gap between male and female participation rates in this age range is less than 10 pts, at 82.8% and 73.3% respectively, continuing the long term convergence of male and female participation.

The trend participation rate for 15-24 year olds (who are often referred to as the “youth” group in the labour market) remained steady at 67.9%. The unemployment rate for this group remained steady at 11.3% in December 2018 and decreased by 1.0 pts over the year.

The trend series smooths the more volatile seasonally adjusted estimates and provide the best measure of the underlying behaviour of the labour market.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

Seasonally adjusted employment increased by 21,600 persons from November to December 2018. The underlying composition of the net change was a decrease of 3,000 persons in full-time employment and an increase of 24,600 persons in part-time employment. Since December 2017, full-time employment increased by 162,000 persons, while part-time employment increased by 106,600 persons.

Seasonally adjusted monthly hours worked in all jobs increased by 1.3 million hours (or 0.1%) in December to 1,758.9 million hours.

The seasonally adjusted employment to population increased by less than 0.1 pts to 62.4% in December 2018, and increased by 0.3 pts from the same time last year.

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 pts to 5.0% in December 2018. The participation rate decreased by less than 0.1 pts to 65.6%.

STATE AND TERRITORY ESTIMATES

TREND ESTIMATES

In December 2018, increases in trend employment were observed in the majority of states and territories. The largest increases were in Victoria (up 12,000 persons), followed by New South Wales (up 6,400 persons) and Queensland (up 6,000 persons). Employment fell in Western Australia (down 500 persons), Tasmania (down 200 persons) and the Australian Capital Territory (down 200 persons).

Over the past year, increases in employment were observed in all states except Tasmania (down 300 persons). Both territories recorded falls in employment (the Australian Capital Territory down 4,500 persons and the Northern Territory down 3,200 persons). The largest increases were in New South Wales (up 114,800 persons), Victoria (up 114,300 persons) and Queensland (up 35,200 persons). The highest annual employment growth rates were in Victoria at 3.5%, followed by New South Wales at 2.9% and Queensland at 1.4%. New South Wales and Victoria were the only states to have a year-on-year growth rate in trend employment above their 20 year average.

The monthly trend unemployment rate increased by 0.1 pts in Western Australia (6.4%) and the Northern Territory (5.0%). It remained unchanged in New South Wales (4.3%), Queensland (6.2%), South Australia (5.8%), Tasmania (5.8%) and the Australian Capital Territory (3.6%). It decreased 0.1 pts in Victoria (4.4%).

The only increase in the trend participation rate was in Victoria (up 0.1 pts to 65.8%). Decreases were observed in Tasmania (down 0.2 pts to 60.2%), Australian Capital Territory (down 0.2 pts to 69.4%) and New South Wales (down 0.1 pts to 64.8%). The monthly trend participation rate remained unchanged in all remaining states and territories.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

In seasonally adjusted terms, the largest increase in employment was in Queensland (up 11,600 persons), followed by Victoria (up 10,500 persons) and New South Wales (up 3,800 persons). The largest decrease was in Western Australia (down 15,300 persons).

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased in South Australia (up 0.6 pts to 5.9%) and Tasmania (up 0.1 pts to 5.9%). The largest decreases in the unemployment rate were observed in Victoria (down 0.4 pts to 4.2%), Queensland (down 0.2 pts to 6.1%) and Western Australia (down 0.2 pts to 6.3%).

The largest increases in the seasonally adjusted participation rate were in South Australia (up 0.4 pts to 62.7%) and Queensland (up 0.1 pts to 66.1%). The seasonally adjusted participation rate decreased in Western Australia (down 1.0 pts to 68.0%) followed by Tasmania (down 0.4 pts to 60.0%) and Victoria (down 0.2 pts to 65.8%).

Housing Credit Growth Continues To Wane; Prices Will Follow

The ABS released their housing finance data to end November 2018. The trend estimate for the total value of dwelling finance commitments excluding alterations and additions fell 1.1%, or $338 million to $29.2 billion dollars. Owner occupied housing, excluding refinance fell 1.2% or $167 million to $13.4 billion and investment housing commitments fell 1.5%, or $145 million to $9.5 billion dollars. Refinanced loans were down 0.4% or $26 million to $6.2 billion. In trend terms, the number of commitments for owner occupied housing finance fell 0.2% in November 2018.

In trend terms, the number of commitments for the construction of dwellings fell 0.9%, the number of commitments for the purchase of new dwellings fell 0.6% and the number of commitments for the purchase of established dwellings fell 0.1%.

Looking in more detail at the movements, Owner Occupied construction fell 1.5%, down $28 million to $1.8 billion, the purchase of new owner occupied property fell 1.4% or $14.9 million, to $1 billion dollars. The owner occupied purchase of existing dwellings fell 1.2% or $123 million to $10.6 billion dollars. Investment construction fell 4.3% or $36 million to $0.8 billion dollars, investment purchases by individuals fell 1.1% or $90 million to $7.9 billion dollars and investment by other entities including self managed super funds fell 2.4% or $17 million to $0.71 billion dollars.

In original terms, the number of first home buyer commitments as a percentage of total owner occupied housing finance commitments rose to 18.3% in November 2018 from 18.1% in October 2018. In November 10,493 first time buyers purchased, 356 more than in the previous month.

The number of first time investors continues to fall, as measured by our surveys, with just 350 transaction written in the month, compared with 2,760 a year ago.

The month on month data shows the relative changes across the categories. Turning to the original stock data, we see total loans growing by 0.5% in the month with investor lending down to 33.26% of all loans. Total ADI loans stood at $1.17 trillion dollars, withe owner occupied loans at $1.1 trillion dollars and investment lending at $0.56 trillion dollars.

One final cut of the data is to look across the states – here we look at total owner occupied lending. We see a significant fall in NSW and VIC plus QLD, offset only a little by rises in TAS, ACT and SA. This in a nutshell explains why total credit is falling. Frankly the major markets of Sydney and Melbourne set to tone for the entire economy! We do not expect these falls to reverse anytime soon, and as credit drives home prices, the falls will continue. Recent APRA easing will have only small impact.

Finally, note that the ABS says November 2018 is the final issue of the Housing Finance, Australia (5609.0) and Lending Finance, Australia (5671.0) publications. Both publications will be combined into a single, simpler publication called Lending to Households and Businesses, Australia (5601.0).

New Home Starts In Sep 18 Quarter Lower

The ABS data released today shows the rate of new home starts is slowing.

The HIA put our a note on this:

Total housing starts in the September 2018 quarter increased in Queensland (8.3 per cent), Western Australia (2.9 per cent) and in the Australian Capital Territory (41.5 per cent). Housing starts declined in the remaining states: South Australia (-18.6 per cent), Victoria (-16.0 per cent), Tasmania (-6.0 per cent), New South Wales (-5.5 per cent) and the Northern Territory (-2.9 per cent).

“Strong levels of new home starts early last year underpinned one of the strongest years of residential building activity on record. Results for the second half of the year reflect the softening that have been evident in the broader housing market,” said HIA Senior Economist, Geordan Murray.

“The ABS today released building activity data for the September quarter of 2018. A total of 54,803 dwellings commenced construction which is down by 5.7 per cent in the quarter and down by 2.2 per cent against the same period a year ago.

“Detached house starts were down by 4.5 per cent in the quarter but were comparable with the level of starts during the September quarter a year earlier.

“Starts of ‘other dwellings’, primarily apartments, were down by 7.1 per cent in the quarter and down by 5.3 per cent on the year-ago level.

“This was a material decline but it can’t be considered a poor result. It was still a strong level of starts and there is a large amount of residential building work underway.

“We’ll continue to monitor activity closely as leading indicators suggest that there were fewer new projects entering the pipeline in the latter stages of 2018. This is a warning bell for the trajectory of starts in 2019.

“As projects that are currently under construction reach completion there are likely to be fewer new projects coming in behind them. This applies to both the detached house market and the market for higher density dwellings.”

Retail turnover rises 0.4 per cent in November

Australian retail turnover rose 0.4 per cent in November 2018, seasonally adjusted, according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Retail Trade figures. This follows a rise of 0.3 per cent in October 2018.

But the more reliable trend estimate for Australian retail turnover rose 0.2 per cent in November 2018, following a 0.2 percent rise in October 2018. Compared to November 2017, the trend estimate rose 3.6 per cent.

Monthly Turnover, Current PricesTrend Estimate

Graph: Monthly Turnover, Current Prices, Trend Estimate

“Household goods retailing (1.2 per cent) led the rises” said Ben Faulkner, Acting Director of Quarterly Economy Wide Surveys, “while there was also a notable rise for Clothing, footwear and personal accessories retailing (1.5 per cent). Both of these industries were impacted by strong promotional activity in the November month, including Black Friday sales.” Rises were also seen in Food retailing (0.2 per cent) and Department stores (0.4 per cent). Other retailing (-0.1 per cent), and Cafes, restaurant and takeaway services retailing (-0.1 per cent), both had minor falls this month.

Online retail turnover contributed 6.6 per cent to total retail turnover in original terms in November 2018, a rise from 5.9 per cent in October 2018. This is the highest level recorded in the series and continues a pattern of increasing online contributions to total sales in November. In November 2017 online retail turnover contributed 5.5 per cent to total retail.

In seasonally adjusted terms there were rises in New South Wales (0.8 per cent), Queensland (0.4 per cent), Western Australia (0.6 per cent), the Australian Capital Territory (1.6 per cent), and Victoria (0.1 per cent). South Australia was relatively unchanged (0.0 per cent). There were falls in the Northern Territory (-0.9 per cent), and Tasmania (-0.2 per cent).

Dwelling approvals fall in November

The number of dwellings approved in Australia fell by 2.3 per cent in November 2018, in trend terms, according to data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today.

“The trend for total dwellings has been steadily declining over the past twelve months,” said Justin Lokhorst, Director of Construction Statistics at the ABS. “The series is now 18.3 per cent lower than at the same time last year.”

NUMBER OF TOTAL DWELLING UNITS

Graph: Number of total dwelling units

The trend estimate for total dwellings approved fell 2.3% in November.


NUMBER OF PRIVATE SECTOR HOUSES

Graph: Number of private sector houses

The trend estimate for private sector houses approved fell 0.3% in November.


NUMBER OF PRIVATE SECTOR DWELLINGS EXCLUDING HOUSES

Graph: Number of private sector dwellings excluding houses

The decrease in November was driven by private sector dwellings excluding houses (e.g. townhouses and apartments), which fell 5.0 per cent. Private sector houses also declined, by 0.3 per cent.

Among the states and territories, dwelling approvals fell in November in the Australian Capital Territory (9.5 per cent), South Australia (6.2 per cent), Western Australia (4.5 per cent), Queensland (3.4 per cent) and New South Wales (3.1 per cent) in trend terms. Tasmania (3.5 per cent) and Victoria (0.6 per cent) were the only states to record increases, while the Northern Territory was flat.

Approvals for private sector houses fell 0.3 per cent in November in trend terms. Victoria (0.7 per cent) and New South Wales (0.1 per cent) rose, while decreases were recorded in Queensland (1.8 per cent), South Australia (1.0 per cent) and Western Australia (0.7 per cent).

In seasonally adjusted terms, total dwellings fell by 9.1 per cent in November, driven by a 17.9 per cent decrease in private dwellings excluding houses. Private houses fell 2.6 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms.

The value of total building approved fell 0.8 per cent in November, in trend terms, and has fallen for 12 months. The value of residential building fell 1.6 per cent, while non-residential building rose 0.6 per cent.

HIA Blames Credit Supply

The HIA were quick to blame tighter lending, blaming the banks for tightening too far. No, HIA, they are now obeying the law!

“This weak result shows just how much the current credit squeeze is weighing on the home building sector.

“The credit squeeze is happening at the behest of the banks’ own lending practices which have been tightened above and beyond APRA’s requirements.

“HIA research has found that the time taken to gain approval for a loan to build a new home has blown out from around two weeks to more than two months.

“APRA’s decision late last year to lift its 30 per cent cap on banks’ interest-only lending is a welcome development, but more needs to be done to mitigate the growing risks of a hard-landing in the housing market.

“Policy makers and lenders alike need to be cognisant that ordinary home buyers are now facing blow- outs in loan processing times and also much greater rates of flat-out loan rejection. Today’s results show how this is weighing substantially on the new home building sector.

“We’ve long been anticipating the current downturn in new home building, but there is a risk it could develop more quickly and strongly than expected.

“In particular policy makers and lenders will need to respond judiciously to the pending release of the Banking Royal Commission’s recommendations.”

Trend unemployment rate continues to decrease

Australia’s trend unemployment rate fell from 5.2 per cent to 5.1 per cent in November 2018, according to the latest figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

The trend participation rate increased slightly to 65.7 per cent in November 2018, and was 0.2 percentage points higher than in November 2017. The female participation rate rose to 60.5 per cent and the male participation rate rose to 71.0 per cent.

ABS Chief Economist Bruce Hockman said:”The continued decrease in the trend unemployment rate to 5.1 per cent coincides with the highest trend participation rate ever.”

Employment and hours


In November 2018, trend employment increased by 28,800 persons. Full-time employment increased by 19,300 persons and part-time employment increased by 9,500 persons.

Over the past year, trend employment increased by 295,700 persons (2.4 per cent) which was above the average year-on-year growth over the past 20 years (2.0 per cent).

The trend monthly hours worked increased by 0.2 per cent in November 2018 and by 1.9 per cent over the past year. This is slightly above the 20 year average year on year growth of 1.7 per cent.

The monthly trend underemployment rate increased by less than 0.1 percentage points to 8.4% and the monthly underutilisation rate remained steady at 13.5 per cent.

States and territories

This month, the trend unemployment rate decreased in New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory, increased in Western Australia and the Northern Territory, and remained steady in all other states.

The monthly trend unemployment rate increased in the Northern Territory (up 0.3 percentage points to 5.0 per cent) and Western Australia (up 0.1 percentage points to 6.3 per cent), and decreased in New South Wales (down 0.1 percentage points to 4.4 per cent) and the Australian Capital Territory (down 0.1 percentage points to 3.4 per cent). Victoria (4.6 per cent), Queensland (6.3 per cent), South Australia (5.6 per cent) and Tasmania (5.8 per cent) all remained unchanged.

The monthly trend participation rate decreased in the Northern Territory (down 0.3 percentage points to 74.0 per cent), Tasmania (down 0.2 percentage points to 60.6 per cent), the Australian Capital Territory (down 0.1 percentage points to 70.0 per cent), New South Wales (down less than 0.1 percentage points to 64.9 per cent) and South Australia (down less than 0.1 percentage points to 62.4 per cent). The trend participation rate increased in Western Australia (up 0.1 percentage points to 68.9 percent) and Victoria (up less than 0.1 percentage points to 65.8 per cent). The monthly trend participation rate remained unchanged in Queensland (65.7 per cent).

Seasonally adjusted data


The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 5.1 per cent in November 2018. The seasonally adjusted number of persons employed increased by 37,000 persons.

The net movement of employed in both trend and seasonally adjusted terms is underpinned by well over 300,000 people entering employment, and more than 300,000 leaving employment in the month.

Home Price Falls Are Accelerating (Will Bank Capital Be Hit?)

The ABS released their Residential Property Price Index series yesterday. 

They said that the price index for residential properties for the weighted average of the eight capital cities fell 1.5% in the September quarter 2018. The index fell 1.9% through the year to the September quarter 2018.

The capital city residential property price indexes fell in Melbourne (-2.6%), Sydney (-1.9%), Perth (-0.6%) and Darwin (-0.9%), and rose in Brisbane (+0.6%), Adelaide (+0.6%), Hobart (+1.3%) and Canberra (+0.5%).

Annually, residential property prices fell in Sydney (-4.4%), Darwin (-4.4%), Melbourne (-1.5%), Perth (-0.5%) and rose in Hobart (+13.0%), Canberra (+3.7%), Adelaide (+2.0%) and Brisbane (+1.7%).

The total value of residential dwellings in Australia was $6,847,057.2m at the end of the September quarter 2018, falling $70,148.6m over the quarter.

The mean price of residential dwellings fell $9,700 to $675,000 and the number of residential dwellings rose by 40,900 to 10,143,700 in the September quarter 2018.

Of course these averages do not tell the true picture, because the movements are not uniform across a state. In some post codes now we are seeing falls of more than 20% from the previous peak, elsewhere prices are holding more steadily. However, given credit availability drives home prices, and credit is harder to come by, we should expect more falls ahead. Then the question becomes, is a soft landing feasible? I have to say that all the cycles I have examined never ended softly, so it would be a first, if it did happen.

But there is another point to consider. Major banks use internal risk models to calculate the amount of capital they hold against mortgage loans. Other banks use more standard approaches.

The calculation is driven by a range of factors, but LVR is one element. Here is the APRA risk weights table.  The point is a loan with an LVR at 80% has a risk weight of 50%, but the same loan at 90% LVR requires 75%, and 100% LVR 100% weighting.  In other words, the capital doubles between 80 and 100% LVR!

At some point quite soon now banks will need to re-baseline their mortgage books.  When property prices were rising, they would do this quite regularly to reduce the capital requirement. The reverse is also true.

The governing APRA document says “The ADI must also revalue any property offered as security for such loans when it becomes aware of a material change in the market value of property in an area or region”. Have banks started to revalue their portfolios and up their risk weights in the light of these falls? This is also, by the way, why economists attached to the major banks have an interest in playing down potential home price falls.

APRA says “the valuation may be based on the valuation at origination or, where relevant, on a subsequent formal revaluation by an independent accredited valuer. The determination of the appropriate risk weight is also dependent upon mortgage insurance provided by an acceptable lenders mortgage insurer (LMI)”. Of course many lenders now have access to Automated Valuation Models from players such as CoreLogic. 

So now the question becomes, how much more capital will the banks have to put aside to take account of falling prices, who will bear the cost, and will APRA back down on its capital requirements which insist the banks hold more capital ahead? I expect more weakness in bank share prices as the impact of this hits home. As home prices fall further the impact will be magnified.

 

Retail Flat At 0.2% Trend In October

The ABS released their Retail Turnover stats for October 2018.  Still looks pretty sluggish. Perhaps Christmas will accelerate the spend. We will see! New South Wales reported a fall, well behind Victoria and Queensland.

They say:

  • The trend estimate rose 0.2% in October 2018. This follows a rise of 0.2% in September 2018, and a rise of 0.2% in August 2018.
  • The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.3% in October 2018. This follows a 0.1% rise in September 2018, and a rise of 0.3% in August 2018.
  • In trend terms, Australian turnover rose 3.5% in October 2018 compared with October 2017.
  • The following industries rose in trend terms in October 2018: Food retailing (0.2%), Other retailing (0.5%), Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (0.2%), and Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (0.2%). Household goods retailing (-0.1%), and Department Stores (-0.1%) fell in trend terms in October 2018.
  • The following states and territories rose in trend terms in October 2018: Victoria (0.4%), Queensland (0.5%), South Australia (0.3%), Tasmania (0.3%), and the Australian Capital Territory (0.2%). Western Australia was relatively unchanged (0.0%). New South Wales (-0.1%), and the Northern Territory (-0.8%) fell in trend terms in October 2018.

Online retail turnover contributed 5.9 per cent to total retail turnover in original terms in October 2018, a rise from 5.6 per cent in September 2018 and the highest level recorded in the series. In October 2017 online retail turnover contributed 4.7 per cent to total retail.