Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
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RBA Deputy Governor Guy Debelle gave a keynote Address at the Australian Financial Review Business Summit. It was a summary of how the Bank is seeing developments in the economy at the moment. As normal, the story was the economy was doing quite well, until the onset of the coronavirus. And once it passes things … Continue reading “The Virus and the Australian Economy According To The RBA”
We had the latest national accounts to end of December 2019 this week. The ABS advised that: The Australian economy grew 0.5 per cent in seasonally adjusted chain volume terms in the December quarter 2019 and 2.2 per cent through the year, according to figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Chief Economist … Continue reading “The GDP Per Capita Conundrum”
The good news is our economy was performing better than had been thought in the lead-up to the bushfires and coronavirus. Via The Conversation. Updated figures in Wednesday’s national accounts show the economy grew 0.6% in the three months to September, rather than the 0.4% previously reported, and a healthier-than-expected 0.5% in the three months … Continue reading “Support package gains shape as GDP turning point swamped”
The RBA released their minutes today, and its all upside. Just seems disconnected from reality! Rates will remain low, for years!!! International Economic Conditions Members commenced their discussion of the global economy by noting the International Monetary Fund’s forecast for global growth to pick up in 2020 and 2021. The easing in trade tensions between … Continue reading “RBA Parallel Universe Is SO Dovish”
Thanks to rises in the valuation of shares, and a bounce in property values, on paper households are now more wealthy, with the value of total assets growing faster than borrowing, and aided by overall population growth. Households were net lenders of $54.3b, depositing $23.8b and accruing $16.1b in net equity in reserves of pension … Continue reading “Household Net Worth Grew 3% In Last Quarter: ABS”
RBA’s minutes out today. Clear signals of more action next year, despite the perceived gentle turning point. Financial Markets Members noted that interest rates were very low around the world, with a number of central banks having eased monetary policy over recent months in response to downside risks to the global economy and subdued inflation. … Continue reading “RBA Minutes: “A Gentle Turning Point”!”
Australians saved rather than spent most of the budget tax cuts, almost doubling the proportion of household income saved, leaving spending languishing. Via The Conversation. The September quarter national accounts show that in the first three months of the financial year real household spending grew by just 0.1%, the least since the global financial crisis. … Continue reading “GDP update: spending dips and saving soars”
As expected the RBA held the cash rate today, but still leaves the door open for cuts next year. Given the weaker economic data we are seeing, those further cuts are pretty much assured. At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 0.75 per cent. The outlook for the global economy … Continue reading “RBA Holds, For Now”
Governor Philip Lowe spoke at the Australian Economists Dinner last night. In many ways, little new here, but the RBA thinks the zero bounds cash rate is 0.25%, and QE is an option, but only in a crisis. “There may come a point where QE could help promote our collective welfare, but we are not … Continue reading “RBA On Unconventional Monetary Policy”
The RBA held rates today, as expected, but their explanation is turning pretty sour as reality bites. Expect more downgrades and rate cuts ahead, just a matter of time. I also find it amazing that unlike UK, USA, and NZ there is no streamed press conference nor questions from the media after the announcement. The … Continue reading “Hold Your Horses! RBA Does Too…”