Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog
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Dr Steven Kennedy, Secretary to the Treasury appeared before Senate Estimates today. Global economic conditions Over the past year global growth has slowed. Several major economies, notably Germany and the United Kingdom, as well as close trading partners in our region such as Korea and Singapore, have recently experienced negative quarters of growth. There has … Continue reading “The Treasury Sees An Economic Silver Lining”
The RBA minutes for October are decidedly bearish, clearly the battery in their rose-tinted specs as run down, revealing the mounting risks in the economy. Probably more risks ahead, more cuts and the proverbial QE in some form… International Economic Conditions Members commenced their discussion of global economic conditions by noting that heightened policy uncertainty … Continue reading “RBA Rose Tinted Specs On The Blink”
The ABS released their August 2019 retail figures today, and the data confirms the slowing economy, and that despite 2 rate cuts and tax refunds, households are unwilling or unable to spend. This is consistent with our surveys data which shows any free cash is going towards paying down debt, a sign of reduced levels … Continue reading “August Retail Disappoints – Unsurprisingly”
At its meeting today, the Board decided to lower the cash rate by 25 basis points to 0.75 per cent. While the outlook for the global economy remains reasonable, the risks are tilted to the downside. The US–China trade and technology disputes are affecting international trade flows and investment as businesses scale back spending plans because of the … Continue reading “RBA Cuts Yet Again!”
Both the RBA and APRA released their respective credit aggregates to end August today. And its not running to script, despite the rate cuts, some stronger buying signs in some housing markets (but on low, low volumes), and increased competition for loans. Overall credit growth rates continue to decline. The RBA data over the rolling … Continue reading “The Credit Impulse Hiccups In August 2019”
The Official Cash Rate (OCR) remains at 1.0 percent. The Monetary Policy Committee agreed that new information since the August Monetary Policy Statement did not warrant a significant change to the monetary policy outlook. Employment is around its maximum sustainable level, and inflation remains within our target range but below the 2 percent mid-point. Global … Continue reading “New Zealand Official Cash Rate Unchanged At 1 Percent”
The main message from The RBA Governor tonight on the global economy is that while it is still growing reasonably well, the risks are increasingly tilted to the downside. The main source of these downside risks are geopolitical developments in many parts of the world. These developments are creating considerable uncertainty and this uncertainty is … Continue reading “Lowe On The Economy – “Extended Period Of Low Rates Required””
There is an interesting paper the Reserve Bank NZ has put out, seeking comments by 31 August. The Future of Cash Use. It was issued in June 2019. The paper describes the transition to digital alternatives, and explains some of the reasons. But what caught my eye was this section. “All members of society will … Continue reading “RBNZ Consults On Cash – And Blows A Hole In The Australian War On Cash!”
The Treasurer has now (finally) released the proposed timetable for implementation of the recommendations from the Royal Commission made back in February. It is entitled “Restoring Trust In Australia’s Financial System”, but of course the big question is, will these measures once implemented really get to the heart of the issue – we doubt it. … Continue reading “Banking Royal Commission Implementation Plan Revealed”
Courtesy of Philip Lowe, speaking in Darwin tonight. Savers do not even warrant a mention… more the shame! As I am sure you are aware, this morning the Board decided to reduce the cash rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 1 per cent. This follows a similar adjustment last month. This easing of monetary … Continue reading “RBA’s Explanation For The Cut”