This Crypto Winter May Not Turn To Spring!

Well, those following my channel over recent years will know that I have been quite skeptical of Crypto wave, and while Crypto has gone through several major drops in its history, this time could be different. I was not impressed with so called celebrities starting spruiking them, including Kim Kardashian, but when financial mainstream started getting involved, my concerned grew. In the US, Fidelity’s plans to offer Bitcoin in 401(k)s – their equivalent of superannuation – could impact an entire generation.

Its worth recalling the sector spiked to around $3 trillion in total assets last November, before plunging to less than $1 trillion, with Bitcoin and a range of altcoins plunging from record highs.

What started this year in crypto markets as a “risk-off” bout of selling fueled by a Federal Reserve suddenly determined to rein in excesses has exposed a web of interconnectedness that looks a little like the tangle of derivatives that brought down the global financial system in 2008. The collapse of the Terra ecosystem — a much-hyped experiment in decentralized finance — began with its algorithmic stablecoin losing its peg to the US dollar, and ended with a bank run that made $40 billion of tokens virtually worthless. Crypto collateral that seemed valuable enough to support loans one day became deeply discounted or illiquid, putting the fates of a previously invincible hedge fund and several high-profile lenders in doubt.

The recent crypto plunge, with Bitcoin down about 70% from its peak, is fueling widespread financial troubles for companies involved in the space. Lenders like Celsius Network, Babel Finance and Vauld have suspended withdrawals, while firms such as Coinbase Global Inc. are cutting jobs. This is what is now being called a crypto winter – but will spring ever come?

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After Central Banks – What?

There was an outstanding piece from John Authers this week arguing that the Age of Credibility for Central Banks Is Over as inflation blunders have destroyed the trust that’s anchored the global financial system since the end of the gold standard.

Certainly, in Australia, the RBA has been on shaky ground for many years, including over forecasting wages growth, taking interest rates too low, and relying on household wealth to be artificially inflated by poor policy for years. But the shocking reversal from last November’s no rate rises til 2024, to today’s 1.35% target cash rate, with more to come, shows just how far from credible they are – despite politicians still talking about mountains of respect. Over in New Zealand they are further up the curve, but the issues are the same. Central Bank credibility is shot.

It appears that the most likely anchor to replace central bank credibility is confidence in governments. But that is not a comforting thought.

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The Recession Obsession…

The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour.

Wall Street ended little changed on Friday after a volatile session in which investors tried to comprehend how a robust jobs report would influence the U.S. Federal Reserve and its plans to aggressively hike interest rates.

“I’m calling this period right now a recession obsession,” BMO Capital Markets Corp. chief investment strategist Brian Belski said .“Institutional investors are not positioned for any kind of upside move. That’s why you are seeing these sharp moves on a day like today and certainly over the last few days in terms of a short squeeze. We remain positive and think people are way too negative.”

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, until recently among the central bank’s most dovish policymakers, said on Friday he “fully” supports another 75-basis-point rate rise later this month.

Speaking later on Friday, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams did not specify if he favors a half point or three-quarter point increase at the Fed’s upcoming July meeting, but acknowledged rising interest rates were affecting the economy.

[Content]

0:00 Start
0:15 Introduction
0:27 Recession Obsession
1:35 US Non Farm Payrolls
4:45 US Markets
10:15 Gold
10:35 European Markets
12:00 Oil
12:40 Asian Markets
14:20 Australian Markets
16:15 May Trade Surplus
18:30 Market Trends
21:25 Crypto
22:15 DXY
22:35 Summary and Close

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The Dominos They Are Afallin’: With Tarric Brooker

My latest chat on a Friday afternoon with Journalist Tarric Brooker, covering the latest economic and financial news, courtesy of his famous slides. https://avidcom.substack.com/p/charts-that-matter-8th-july-2022

You can follow him on Twitter @AvidCommentator

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Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!

In our latest Monday Rant we look at the latest from our Wee-Chatters, the latest numbers, and “innovative” property solutions, as rate rise and pressure on households build.

https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/

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Loans And Building Approvals Up – But Don’t Lift Mortgage Rates!

The latest data from the ABS on new loans and building approvals contain some interesting insights, but the Canstar survey says borrowers do not want more rate hikes (any surprise?), ahead of the RBA decision tomorrow.

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Beware: Scams Robbed Australians Of More Than $2bn Last Year!

The ACCC’s latest Scamwatch report makes concerning reading, especially the growth in investment and online scams.

https://www.accc.gov.au/media-release/scams-robbed-australians-of-more-than-2-billion-last-year

Please be careful people, and ignore those “get rich quick” messages across social media and online channels. If it is too good to be true, its a scam.

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Volt Bank Loses Its Spark! Others May Follow….

Neo-Bank Volt has closed its doors and is returning deposits to its customers and selling its mortgage book. We look at why this happened, and whether other banks are at risk in this rising rate environment.

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No Escape! Recession Will Destroy Wealth. Period.

In today’s show, we review the weeks market action, starting in the US – by far the most influential market, followed by Europe, Asia and Australia. There is no place to hide. Wealth is being destroyed. And there is no end in sight. Data is flagging recession, as central banks continue to raise rates and given the astronomical debt burden out there this is a big deal.

Even conservative investment strategies are being hit. “This is a train wreck,” says Alex Dunnin, executive director of research house Rainmaker Group. “When a traditionally conservative strategy is getting the worst returns then all bets are off. It doesn’t matter where you go, almost everyone will be in pain.”

The S&P 500 notched its worst start since 1970, plunging 20.6% between January and June. The Dow had its largest first-half drop since 1962, and the Nasdaq Composite had its largest percentage decline ever. And US Stocks slipped over the five days, with the S&P 500 erasing part of its rally in the previous week. Down more than 2%, the index just endured its 11th drop in 13 weeks.

All three indexes posted losses for the week. Despite this Wall Street rallied to close higher on Friday in light trading, with investors heading into the long holiday weekend and embarking on the second half of year looking for the next market-moving catalyst. All major groups in the S&P 500 rose, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 underperformed. Treasuries surged after an ugly first half as weak economic data added to recession fears.

The US economic data was frankly horrid this week. An influx of data showing softer consumer spending, sagging sentiment and subdued manufacturing suggest a US economy with a more fragile foundation, prompting several forecasters to lower their estimates for growth.

Strategists at Goldman Sachs told clients on Thursday that stocks could keep falling later this year since “equities are pricing only a mild recession” and more companies will likely begin reducing their earnings expectations. In the event of a recession, Goldman’s team sees the S&P 500 dropping to 3,600, or 4.9% below Thursday’s close.

[CONTENT]

0:00 Start
0:15 Introduction
2:23 US Weak Economic Data
8:22 GDP Forecast: Down
9:00 Bond Yields
11:00 Buying The Dip
13:50 US Markets
16:00 Oil, Gold and Silver
17:00 Euro-zone Inflation Up
19:18 European Markets
20:00 Asian Markets And China Bonds
22:25 Australian Markets
24:40 Crypto Down
25:47 Tough Times Ahead

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