Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!

Our latest review of the latest property market, as the new year gets into gear. According to the WeeChats, “buy now”, but on the other hand, listings in Melbourne continues to build.

But things are not that straight forward. Perhaps we should review “Three Monkeys And An Elephant”, to misquote two parables…

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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Kiwi Home Prices Wobble!

We got the latest on New Zealand Property for December 2023 from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand.

I love how they spin the release, saying that the December 2023 figures show a notable increase in sales activity, median prices lifting, lower days to sell, and a clear sense of more confidence overall (year-on-year).

This is despite the fact that actually New Zealand house prices edged lower in December, down around 0.3% mom on a seasonally adjusted basis,
though trends diverged across the country, ranging from a 1.9% mom fall in Northland to a 4.2% lift in Tasman.

The national average was weighed down by a 0.9% mom price fall in Auckland. Among other big regions, Wellington prices lifted 0.6%, while prices in Canterbury eased 0.1%.

ASB’s commentary on the REINZ figures are helpful here. They say the NZ housing market has struggled to establish a clear direction since the last housing market correction came to an end in around March/April last year. Monthly price movements have usually been modest in either direction, with the market oscillating between small lifts and even slighter falls over most of the year (see our chart above for the contrast between 2021’s large price rises and 2022’s decent falls with 2023’s more meagre movements).

All-up, prices managed a bounce of only about 1.2% over H2 of last year.

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Actually, In Some Areas Home Prices Are Falling!

I get very tired of the high-level reporting of home prices, because as you know I believe we have many discrete markets, which are behaving very differently across locations, states and types of property. Averages mask.

But in some areas, prices are indeed continuing to drop. And drop fast.
For example, in my old stomping ground, Thirroul, median house values rose significantly from 2019, peaked in 2021 at over 2 million dollars, that’s double their 2019 levels, then fell away to a new trough of $1.68 million in March 2023, before rising a little, but then moved down to around $1.78 million. And Units in the same area are still descending and on average are just now over $1m.

Similar patterns are showing up elsewhere.

Last year I did a number of “antispruik” shows where we did deep dives at a post code level and looked at how vendors were cutting their asking prices to get a sale.

And actually, as the AFR reported home values in 27 coastal towns have plummeted by more than $200,000 from their pandemic highs two years ago, while 56 towns lost more than $100,000, analysis by CoreLogic shows.

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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Stupid Promises Collide With Reality As Housing Targets Won’t Be Met!

The NSW government has already announced plans last month to build more than 200,000 homes and focus on higher density living by building up, not out. But now NSW Premier Chris Minns says the state will not meet its housing target, but is doing its best to boost supply.

The plan includes 138,000 new homes at rezoned sites in 31 suburbs, and 47,800 homes near eight major transport hubs, with the latter to be completed over the next 15 years.

Those suburbs include Bankstown, Bays West, Bella Vista, Crows Nest, Homebush, Hornsby, Kellyville and Macquarie Park.

The government will offer developers in those zones a fast-tracked approvals process, called a state significant development, to ensure apartments are built quickly.

It will be offered to developments over $60 million, and construction must start within two years of approval.

The government also intends to relocate Rosehill Racecourse and replace it with 25,000 homes as part of the plan.

But Housing industry insiders say they are not surprised by the NSW premier’s admission that the state will not meet its housing targets agreed to just last year.

The target, which was set out by the federal government in August, would see an average of 75,000 new dwellings a year over the next five years. It is part of a broader plan to build 1.2 million homes across Australia during that period.

Premier Chris Minns said the government would fall short of the goal but was working on building as many houses and units as possible to alleviate housing shortages and skyrocketing costs.

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Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you.

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Edwin understands your needs. So why not engage a licensed professional to stand alongside you. With RPC you know you have: experience, knowledge, and master negotiators, looking after your best interest.

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Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!

Another thought provoking chat with our Property Insider Edwin Almeida, as we look at the latest trends and news. Looks like 2024 will be quite a year!

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/

It’s All Happening – Again! With Tarric Brooker…

My first Friday chat with Tarric Brooker, Journalist and Chart-Meister.

Will recent developments force a replay of the recent inflation crisis and keep rates higher for longer. If so, what are the potential implications politically and economically?

His charts are here: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/dfa-chart-pack-12th-january-2024

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DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Latest Household Financial Stress Modelling And Analysis

This is an edit of our latest live discussion as I walked through our recent survey results, and discussed the outcomes at a postcode level.

For the full survey analysis see our show here: https://youtu.be/G1T72rUFlgA

For additional post codes requested see here: https://youtu.be/TJ65WucbZAM

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Household Stress: You Asked, We Answered! [Postcode Analysis]

Following my post about Household Financial Stress https://youtu.be/G1T72rUFlgA and the upcoming live show tomorrow, I received many requests for postcode level analysis. So I made an extra show here to cover some of the requests.

Post Codes Covered (In Order) In This Show:
3912
4868
2560
4670
2487
6149
3842
3799
6072
4178
2042
4215
3690
2640
6030
2137
4670
3174
3012

Join us tomorrow on the live show for more. https://youtube.com/live/nXhfjacOnA0

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Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!

Another deep dive into the dynamics of property with our insider Edwin Almeida. How are the new listings tracking, and how does this compare with the MSM stories we are seeing? Will new construction volumes remain in the doldrums?

http://www.martinnorth.com/

Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.

Household Financial Distress Spreads Further…

Ahead of my live show on Tuesday evening, today I walk through the latest from our household surveys, with a focus on mortgage, rental, investor and overall household financial stress.

We look at the top stressed postcodes as represented by the data to end December 2023. We also map that data for selected urban centres, as well as default estimates.

If you want data on a specific postcode to be featured on Tuesday drop it in the comments on YouTube.

Details of our One to One Service is also found on our blog: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/

http://www.martinnorth.com/

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