APRA Launches Westpac Investigation

The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has today formally commenced an investigation into possible breaches of the Banking Act 1959 by Westpac Banking Corporation (Westpac).

APRA will focus on the conduct that led to the matters alleged last month by AUSTRAC, as well as the bank’s actions to rectify and remediate the issues after they were identified. The investigation will examine whether Westpac, its directors and/or its senior managers breached the Banking Act – including the Banking Executive Accountability Regime (BEAR) – or contravened APRA’s prudential standards.

Given the magnitude and nature of the issues alleged by AUSTRAC, APRA is aiming to ensure that fundamental deficiencies in Westpac’s risk management framework are identified and addressed and that Westpac and those responsible are held accountable as appropriate.

In addition, APRA will:

  • impose an immediate increase in Westpac’s capital requirements of $500 million, to reflect the heightened operational risk profile of the bank. This brings the total operational risk capital add-ons that Westpac is required to hold to $1 billion, following the increase announced by APRA in July 2019; and
  • initiate an extensive review program focused on Westpac’s risk governance. The review program will include risk management, accountability, remuneration and culture. An element of the review will be an examination of the steps Westpac has been taking to strengthen risk governance in recent years, including through its self-assessment.

APRA Deputy Chair Mr John Lonsdale said: “AUSTRAC’s statement of claim in relation to Westpac contains serious allegations that question the prudential standing of Australia’s second largest bank.

“While Westpac is financially sound, there are potentially substantial gaps in risk governance that need to be closed.

“Given the nature of the matters raised by AUSTRAC, the number of alleged breaches and the period of time over which they occurred, this will necessarily be an extensive and potentially lengthy investigation.”

The investigation affords APRA the opportunity to exercise legal powers that have been expanded and strengthened since 2017’s CBA Prudential Inquiry, including enhanced investigative powers and the implementation of the BEAR in 2018.

APRA will conduct its investigation simultaneously with an investigation by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC), as well as AUSTRAC’s legal proceedings, with each agency cooperating where appropriate.

The scope of APRA’s investigation is below.



Attachment – Scope of APRA’s investigation into Westpac

The prudential matters that are the subject of APRA’s investigation are:  

Whether Westpac, its directors, and/or its senior managers have contravened the Banking Act 1959 and the prudential standards by engaging in, and in the way they responded to, the conduct set out in and otherwise related to the AUSTRAC proceedings.  

In considering possible contraventions of the Act and the prudential standards, the investigation will examine whether:  

(a) Westpac’s governance, control and risk management framework was adequate; and appropriately implemented;  

(b) Westpac’s accountability and remuneration arrangements were adequate, and appropriately implemented to effectively manage non-financial risks;  

(c) there has been a failure to comply with accountability obligations under the Banking Executive Accountability Regime;  

(d) there has been a failure to comply with the requirements of the prudential standards including Prudential Standard CPS 510: Governance, Prudential Standard CPS 520: Fit and Proper, and Prudential Standard CPS 220: Risk Management; and

(e) there was a failure to promptly notify APRA of any significant breaches and/or a breach of accountability obligations.

Auction Results 14th Dec 2019

Domain released their preliminary results for today. This is the last report from them until end January 2020. In addition, they did not send the detailed breakdown they normally do.

So I generated my own chart to show the results.

The current sold over listed ratio is significantly lower than their calculated clearance rates.

See our recent discussion with FreshCanvas.

Is It Time To Move Beyond Exit Polls And Tweets? – The Property Imperative Weekly 14 December 2019

The latest edition of our weekly finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour. Contents:

  1. 00:25 Introduction
  2. 00:45 Trade Deals
  3. 03:00 Impeachment
  4. 03:50 US Markets
  5. 06:20 UK Election and Brexit
  6. 08:30 ECB and Euro
  7. 09:20 Deutsche Bank
  1. 10:30 Australian Section:
  2. 10:30 ASIC Responsible Lending
  3. 12:45 BIS and Household Debt
  4. 13:00 APRA On Risks
  5. 13:30 Westpac
  6. 14:40 Citi and Deutsche Bank Action on Cartel
  7. 16:40 Home Prices and Auctions
  8. 18:15 Economics and recession fears
  9. 19:45 IMF Warns
  10. 21:00 Bank profit warnings
  11. 23:20 Markets

December Live DFA: https://youtu.be/N6QKe7IGGvc

Kitchen Sink From The Fed – Up To $365 Billion In The Next Month! [Video]

The latest from the Federal Reserve, and the trade talks – are they connected? Why the lift in repo transactions ahead?

https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/opolicy/operating_policy_191212

UK Exit Pole Says Tories Win Handsomely

The BBC are reporting:

The Conservatives are set to win an overall majority of 86 in the general election, according to an exit poll for the BBC, ITV and Sky News.

The survey taken at UK polling stations suggests the Tories will get 368 MPs – 50 more than at the 2017 election – when all the results have been counted.

Labour would get 191, the Lib Dems 13, the Brexit Party none and the SNP 55.

The Green Party will still have one MP and Plaid Cymru will lose one seat for a total of three, the survey suggests.

The first general election results are due before midnight (UK time), with the final total expected to be known by Friday lunchtime.

In the exit poll, voters are asked to fill in a mock ballot paper as they leave the polling station indicating how they have just voted.

The exit poll was conducted by Ipsos Mori at 144 polling stations, with 22,790 interviews.

Exit polls have proved to be very accurate in recent years. In 2017 it correctly predicted a hung Parliament, with no overall winner, and in 2015 it predicted the Conservatives would be the largest party.

Adam And I Chat…

I was interviewed by Adam Stokes who runs his own YT channel, mainly covering Crypto. This is my version of the discussion.

The show covered a wide range of issues, from Crypto, Central Banks, Cash Bans and Negative Rates through to politics and democracy.

Adam’s version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vWzhuqM_aoU

Check out his channel: https://www.youtube.com/user/adamstokes224

26 lenders announced for First Home Loan Deposit Scheme

Twenty-six additional lenders have been appointed to the initial panel of the government’s First Home Loan Deposit Scheme, including major bank, Commonwealth Bank. Via The Adviser.

The National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation (NHFIC) has announced its full panel of lenders taking part in the federal government’s First Home Loan Deposit Scheme (FHLDS).

Following on from the announcement that NAB had been chosen as the first major lender for the panel, CBA has been named as the second major bank to offer loans under the scheme, along with 25 non-major lenders.

The participating lenders will have the ability to write loans for first-home buyers (FHBs) who have saved deposits as little as 5 percent, with the government set to guarantee the rest of the deposit under the FHLDS.

CBA and NAB will reportedly be able to issue up to 50 per cent of the 10,000 annual guaranteed loans provided per financial year, according to the NHFIC Investment Mandate.

The two major banks will be accepting applications for the scheme from 1 January 2020.

The other 50 per cent of guaranteed loans will be written by the other non-major lenders on the NHFIC lending panel.

The non-majors will be taking applications from 1 February 2020.

The full list of lenders on the panel, along with NAB and CBA, are as follows:

  • Australian Military Bank
  • Auswide Bank
  • Bank Australia
  • Bank First
  • Bank of us
  • Bendigo Bank
  • Beyond Bank Australia
  • Community First Credit Union
  • CUA
  • Defence Bank
  • Gateway Bank
  • G&C Mutual Bank
  • Indigenous Business Australia
  • Mortgageport
  • MyState Bank
  • People’s Choice Credit Union
  • Police Bank (including the Border Bank and Bank of Heritage Isle)
  • P&N Bank
  • QBANK
  • Queensland Country Credit Union
  • Regional Australia Bank
  • Sydney Mutual Bank and Endeavour Mutual Bank (divisions of Australian Mutual Bank Ltd)
  • Teachers Mutual Bank Limited (including Firefighters Mutual Bank, Health Professionals Bank, Teachers Mutual Bank and UniBank)
  • The Mutual Bank
  • WAW Credit Union

Applications for the scheme will begin on 1 January 2020, and can be made either directly to participating lenders, or via the broker channel. The NHFIC will not be taking any direct applications.

According to the NHFIC, members of the panel have been chosen on the basis of competitiveness of offerings, geographic reach, customer care, and their ability to meet the deadline for the implementation of the scheme.

Further, the NHFIC and federal Minister for Housing and Assistant Treasurer Michael Sukkar have stated that members on the lending panel, will not be able to charge eligible customers higher interest rates than equivalent customers outside the scheme.

Additional lenders may be “periodically” added to the panel after the scheme has launched, according to the NHFIC.

Panel will ‘enable strong activation of mortgage broker channels’

Commenting on the news, the federal Minister for Housing and Assistant Treasurer, Michael Sukkar, commented: “The Morrison Coalition Government is committed to helping make home ownership a reality for more Australians and to get them into the property market sooner.

“Today, the government welcomes confirmation from the National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation (NHFIC) that 27 lenders have been selected, from a wide pool of applicants, to form the initial panel offering guarantee-backed loans under the First Home Loan Deposit Scheme.

“The National Australia Bank (NAB) and Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), together with 25 non-major lenders have been appointed as participating lenders in the Scheme.

“Importantly, all lenders have committed not to charge eligible customers higher interest rates than equivalent customers outside of the scheme,” he said.

Mr Sukkar continued: “The scheme has been warmly welcomed by major industry peak bodies, and the composition of the initial lending panel reflects the industry’s confidence in the Morrison Coalition Government’s plan to assist first home buyers.

“Further, the scheme has been deliberately designed to ensure strong representation of smaller lenders on the panel. This will promote competition between the large and small banks, and ensure the Scheme has broad geographic reach, including in regional and remote communities.

“The composition of the panel should also enable strong activation of mortgage broker channels and promote choice for first home buyers,” he concluded.

BlackRock weighs in on Australia recession fears

The Australian economy is being almost entirely propped up by public sector jobs growth and infrastructure spending, according to BlackRock, via InvestorDaily.

Consumers and businesses just aren’t spending money, despite the Reserve Bank cutting the cash rate by 50 per cent over the last 12 months. Google searches for “Australia recession” reached GFC levels in October. 

While the RBA is battling with the federal government over fiscal stimulus, BlackRock head of Australia fixed income Craig Vardy explained that there is an enormous amount of infrastructure spending going on at the moment with quite a substantial pipeline.

“Really, it has been holding up growth in Australia for quite some time now. That is clearly a concern. Strip away the government proportion of real GDP and you are not left with much at all,” he said.

It remains very important for the RBA that infrastructure spending continues, particularly after three rates cuts in 2019 have failed to drive economic growth or see the Reserve Bank hit its inflation and employment targets.

“The concerning thing about employment is that almost all of the jobs created over the last 12 months have been in the public sector,” Mr Vardy said. “There [have] been almost no jobs growth in the private sector. That is quite concerning.”

BlackRock is predicting the RBA will cut rates to 50 basis points in the first quarter of 2020 and again to 25 basis points in the second half. Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has already flagged that 25 basis points is the lower bound for the central bank; once it reaches a cash rate of 0.25 basis points it will enact quantitative easing by buying Australian government bonds.

While few economists have called out the risks of a recession, in some ways the Australian economy has already experienced a number of mini recessions in 2019 if measured on a GDP per capita basis.

What is preventing the economy slipping into a technical recession (two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth) is population growth, which is currently running at 1.5 per cent annually.

“It is actually very difficult to get a recession in Australia when you’ve got that tailwind behind you,” Mr Vardy said.

For the RBA however, strong population growth presents another issue: creating enough jobs.

“You’ve always got this new employment funnel of people coming through. The RBA has very little chance of hitting its 4.5 per cent unemployment target when population growth is so strong,” Mr Vardy said.

“They need to get the underemployment rate down. That has stalled. The lever they pull is cutting rates. Rates will continue to be cut. I think they have to keep rates low to try and generate employment.”

Fed Holds Their Cash Rate

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in October indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Although household spending has been rising at a strong pace, business fixed investment and exports remain weak. On a 12‑month basis, overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1‑1/2 to 1-3/4 percent. The Committee judges that the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate to support sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective. The Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook, including global developments and muted inflation pressures, as it assesses the appropriate path of the target range for the federal funds rate.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.

APRA flags setting countercyclical capital buffer at non-zero default level

APRA remains in a low risk bubble, according to their paper today, which keeps the counter-cyclical buffer at 0. However they flag that may change ahead. I have to say this seems perverse, given the high debt levels and low economic performance and increased risks. Plain weird, and a million miles off the Reserve Bank NZ’s approach.

The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has decided to keep the countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) for authorised deposit-taking institutions (ADIs) on hold at zero per cent, but has flagged the likelihood of a non-zero default level in the future.

The CCyB is an additional amount of capital that APRA can require ADIs to hold at certain points in the economic cycle to bolster the resilience of the banking sector during periods of heightened systemic risk. It has been set at zero per cent of risk-weighted assets since it was introduced in 2016.

In its annual information paper on the CCyB, APRA today confirmed it considers that a zero per cent CCyB remains appropriate at this point in time based on an assessment of the systemic risk environment for ADIs.

Among the factors APRA considered in making its decision were:

  • low credit growth;
  • minimal change in the risk profile of new housing lending;
  • movements in residential property prices, particularly recent growth; and
  • increased entity costs due to operational risk events and misconduct.

After carefully examining these dynamics, APRA concluded that the current policy setting remains appropriate.

In conjunction with the other agencies on the Council of Financial Regulators, APRA will continue to closely monitor financial and economic conditions. APRA reviews the buffer quarterly, and may adjust it if future circumstances warrant this.

However, the information paper notes that APRA is also giving consideration to introducing a non-zero default level for the CCyB as part of its broader reforms to the ADI capital framework.

APRA Chair Wayne Byres said: “Given current conditions, and the financial strength built up within the banking sector, a zero counter-cyclical buffer remains appropriate.

“However, setting the countercyclical capital buffer’s default position at a non-zero level as part of the ‘unquestionably strong’ framework would not only preserve the resilience of the banking sector, but also provide more flexibility to adjust the buffer in response to material changes in financial stability risks. This is something APRA will consult on as part of the next stage of the capital reforms currently underway.

“Importantly, this would be considered within the capital targets previously announced – it does not reflect any intention to further raise minimum capital requirements.”

APRA expects to commence the next stage of its ADI capital consultation in the first half of next year. APRA’s revised capital framework is currently scheduled to come into effect from 1 January 2022.

The countercyclical capital buffer information paper is available on the APRA website at: https://www.apra.gov.au/countercyclical-capital-buffer-0