Anemic Retail Sales Continues

The trend estimate for Australian retail turnover rose 0.1 per cent in April 2017 following a 0.1 per cent rise in March 2017. Compared to April 2016 the trend estimate rose 2.7 per cent according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Retail Trade figures.

There were rises in food retailing (0.2 per cent), cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (0.2 per cent), department stores (0.4 per cent), and other retailing (0.4 per cent); whilst household goods retailing fell  (0.1 per cent) and clothing footwear and personal accessory retailing fell (0.4 per cent).

In April 2017, South Australia led the rise  (0.4 per cent), with rises also in Australian Capital Territory (0.3 per cent), Victoria (0.3 per cent), Tasmania (0.1 per cent), and New South Wales. Queensland and Western Australia did not change, the Northern Territory fell slightly. (0.1 per cent).

The more reported, but less reliable seasonally adjusted retail turnover rose 1.0 per cent in April 2017, following a fall of 0.2 per cent in March 2017, so look out for the “better than expected” commentary. We do not believe it.

Anyhow, for the records, in seasonally adjusted terms, there were rises in food retailing (1.2 per cent), cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (1.1 per cent), department stores (2.5 per cent), other retailing (0.6 per cent), household goods retailing (0.4 per cent) and clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (0.3 per cent).

In seasonally adjusted terms there were rises in all states and territories. Queensland (2.4 per cent) led the rise, and there were also rises in Victoria (1.0 per cent), South Australia (1.1 per cent), Western Australia (0.4 per cent), New South Wales (0.1 per cent), Tasmania (1.2 per cent), the Northern Territory (1.8 per cent) and the Australian Capital Territory (0.9 per cent) in April 2017.

Online retail turnover contributed 3.4 per cent to total retail turnover in original terms.

Author: Martin North

Martin North is the Principal of Digital Finance Analytics

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